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Staff Picks: Who Wins No. 11 Illinois at No. 4 Purdue?

Are the Illini (16-3, 7-1 Big Ten) ready for their close-up against the mighty Boilermakers (17-2, 7-1) at Mackey Arena on Saturday?
Jason Langendorf|
Illinois center Tomislav Ivisic (13) pulls up for a three-point attempt over Purdue guard Braden Smith (3) in the Illini's 88-80 win over the Boilermakers in the 2024-25 regular-season finale on March 7, 2025, at the State Farm Center in Champaign, Illinois.
Illinois center Tomislav Ivisic (13) pulls up for a three-point attempt over Purdue guard Braden Smith (3) in the Illini's 88-80 win over the Boilermakers in the 2024-25 regular-season finale on March 7, 2025, at the State Farm Center in Champaign, Illinois. | University of Illinois

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Illinois Fighting IlliniPurdue Boilermakers

Since Illinois dropped Purdue in Champaign to end the 2024-25 regular season, then after the Boilermakers were voted college basketball's preseason No. 1 in the AP poll, and certainly since the No. 11 Illini (16-3, 7-1 Big Ten) have torn off eight straight wins to do their part in setting a stage, it feels as though everything has been leading up to this moment: Saturday's Illinois-Purdue matchup at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana (2 p.m. CT, FOX).

And if you think the Illini are the only side that feels the weight of this rivalry, you probably missed Boilermakers coach Matt Painter's comments Friday. Mackey has traditionally been the hammer to Illinois' nail (three straight losses for the Illini in West Lafayette, and 10 in the past 11 games there), but Brad Underwood may have the right recipe to finally catch the Boilers in a rare flicker of vulnerability.

No. 4 Purdue (17-2, 7-1) is coming off a close loss at UCLA, and Illinois has been gradually putting all the pieces together for a Final Four run. Will the Boilers come steaming back on their home floor after just their second loss of the season? Can the Illini overcome the absence of injured leader Kylan Boswell? Find out what our crack Illinois on SI staff has to say about it in our predictions below:

Jason Langendorf

We could litigate this one all day – and our staff has, for several days, in fact – but these are simply two excellent teams set to clash in one of the best regular-season matchups on this season's college basketball schedule. Who's hotter? Who has home court? We know all the angles, we've examined the Xs and Os. It's a coin flip. But I'm gonna call it and say Andrej Stojakovic has another Human Torch game, the threes fall for Underwood's crew and the Illini get the monkey off their back at Mackey.

Prediction: Illinois 79, Purdue 77

Steve Greenberg

Of all the times to take the court without Kylan Boswell, a game at Braden Smith’s crib really isn’t the best of them. Who guards the walking triple-double? Or maybe the Illini simply plan to outscore the Boilermakers, the problem there being that the Boilers are one of the few offenses in the country that can keep up with Illinois'. Maybe they’ll meet again in Indy.

Prediction: Purdue 82, Illinois 77

Jackson Langendorf

The notion of Illinois walking into West Lafayette and stealing a win at Mackey didn't seem outlandish until the Illini lost Boswell. Then, Purdue fell on the road at UCLA, adding fuel to the fire for a Boilermakers club that won't need any extra motivation Saturday. Expect Brad Underwood's club to be competitive, but Purdue should control this game for the vast majority of 40 minutes, as Illinois doesn't have the defensive pieces to hold the wizardry of Braden Smith at bay.

Prediction: Purdue 84, Illinois 77

Pranav Hegde

Illinois heads on the road for one of the toughest assignments in the Big Ten – facing an elite Purdue team that will be highly motivated coming off a loss. Mackey Arena is never forgiving, and without Boswell available, the margin for error shrinks even more for the Illini. Purdue’s physicality, execution and ability to control the game late make the Boilers the clear favorite – especially at home. Illinois has enough shot-making and toughness to hang around and make things uncomfortable, but sustaining that level for 40 minutes will be difficult in this environment.

Prediction: Purdue 78, Illinois 68

Jared Shlensky

Illinois is playing its best basketball, and the Boilermakers are coming off a nail-biting loss to UCLA. And even though they enter this game as the underdog, I'm taking the Illiini. Stojakovic just played his best game in orange and blue (30 points against Maryland) and David Mirkovic continues to play well after initially struggling in Big Ten play.

Prediction: Illinois 83, Purdue 79

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Jason Langendorf
JASON LANGENDORF

Jason Langendorf has covered Illinois basketball, football and more for Illinois on SI since October 2024, and has covered Illini sports – among other subjects – for 30 years. A veteran of ESPN and Sporting News, he has published work in The Guardian, Vice, Chicago Sun-Times and many other outlets. He is currently also the U.S. editor at BoxingScene and a judge for the annual BWAA writing awards. He can be followed and reached on X and Bluesky @JasonLangendorf.

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