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Staff Picks: Who Wins No. 5 Illinois vs. Northwestern?

The Illini (19-3, 10-1 Big Ten) are rolling but need to avoid a letdown against in-state rival Northwestern (10-12, 2-9) on Wednesday in Champaign
Jason Langendorf|
Jan 29, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) drives the ball against Washington Huskies guard Wesley Yates III (9)during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
Jan 29, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) drives the ball against Washington Huskies guard Wesley Yates III (9)during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

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Illinois Fighting IlliniNorthwestern Wildcats

Does winning get boring? Before you dismiss it as a silly question, there's a reason coaches use phrases like "flat," "unfocused" and "trap game." College basketball seasons are a 30-plus-game, five-month grind. Fatigue is a factor, upsets happen and, every now and again, talent doesn't win the day.

That's the backdrop for Wednesday's game in Champaign, where No. 5 Illinois rematches with scuffling Northwestern at the State Farm Center (8 p.m. CT, BTN) after the Illini controlled the teams' first meeting, 79-68, on Jan. 14 in Evanston. Since then, the separation between the two in-state rivals seems to have only grown. Illinois (19-3, 10-1 Big Ten) is riding an 11-game winning streak while NU (10-12, 2-9) is skimming just about the surface of the conference cellar.

Still, the Wildcats always seem to make things tougher than they need to be for the Illini, who are just 4-3 in the series over the past seven games and will need to fight the urge of complacency after last Sunday's big win at Nebraska and ahead of Saturday's showdown at Michigan State. Meanwhile, our crack Illinois on SI staff weighs in on Wednesday's potentially fraught matchup:

Jason Langendorf

Illinois is pretty consistently bringing its best on game nights over nearly the past two months, and Keaton Wagler is largely to thank for raising the floor. He is mission-focused and seemingly unshakeable, and he has been the Illini's spark when its pilot light flickers every so often. The gap between these teams is substantial, so even Chris Collins' coaching and Northwestern's solid recent history in the series probably don't amount to much here. Some dreams are too big.

Prediction: Illinois 79, Northwestern 72

Jackson Langendorf

Northwestern is much tougher than its 2-9 Big Ten record may imply, but the Wildcats are still just a one-man show. Check the box score at the end of Wednesday night, and forward Nick Martinelli very well may have 30-plus, but Illinois is too well-balanced on offense (even with Wagler carrying a heavy load lately) and too dominant on the glass for the 'Cats to hang around.

Prediction: Illinois 83, Northwestern 72

Pranav Hegde

Northwestern has all the makings of a trap game, but the Illini have done more than enough to inspire confidence. This group has been focused and methodical all season long, even in tricky spots. Expect the Wildcats to hang around early and make things uncomfortable, but Illinois should steadily take control and pull away in the second half.

Prediction: Illinois 86, Northwestern 68

Jared Shlesky

After beating Nebraska in Lincoln on Sunday, Illinois very well may be the second-best team in the country behind undefeated Arizona – but don't underestimate Northwestern. Regardless of the sport, these two teams always seem to make things tough on one another tough. And I expect Northwestern to keep this game close for a while. Ultimately, though, the Illini are just better – and should win their 12th straight, probably by double digits.

Prediction: Illinois 86, Northwestern 75

Jack Ankony

Northwestern has played Illinois tough recently, with three wins in seven games since 2023. But from a pure talent perspective, this may be the most lopsided the matchup has been during that span, and Illinois has been on a roll lately. Outside of Martinelli, there’s not much to be concerned with from this Northwestern team. I anticipate the Illini jumping out to an early lead and cruising to a win. Illinois’ balance of size and three-point shooting will be too much to handle.

Prediction: Illinois 84, Northwestern 69

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Jason Langendorf
JASON LANGENDORF

Jason Langendorf has covered Illinois basketball, football and more for Illinois on SI since October 2024, and has covered Illini sports – among other subjects – for 30 years. A veteran of ESPN and Sporting News, he has published work in The Guardian, Vice, Chicago Sun-Times and many other outlets. He is currently also the U.S. editor at BoxingScene and a judge for the annual BWAA writing awards. He can be followed and reached on X and Bluesky @JasonLangendorf.

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