Why The Athletic Has Illinois in the Sweet 16 – and Why the Ride Ends There

CJ Moore of The Athletic has the Illini escaping Milwaukee with a pair of wins but falling in the next round to a familiar foe

Dec 14, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Jordan Gainey (11) drives to the basket and scores as Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kasparas Jakucionis (32) defends in the final seconds at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Considering Illinois (21-12) wrapped up its pre-NCAA Tournament schedule with a disheartening 88-65 loss to Maryland in a game in which the Terrapins made the Illini look like a high school junior varsity team, the 6 seed awarded to the Illini should have been a welcome and much appreciated sight.

Additionally, Illinois appears to have received one of the most advantageous draws of any 6 seed in the tournament. Facing the winner of Texas-Xavier won’t be a cakewalk, but the Illini should manage. Next up would likely be a vulnerable Kentucky squad, which has been banged up down the stretch and is still missing a few key pieces. 

Time to dance pic.twitter.com/LRQEhFrsQs

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 16, 2025

From there, the most likely Sweet 16 opponents for Illinois would appear to be Tennessee, a squad the Illini nearly knocked off earlier this season, or UCLA, a team they did take down earlier this season

So does that leave the Illini poised for another Elite Eight run?

Not quite, according to college basketball expert CJ Moore, of The Athletic.

Moore points out that the Illini had been on the upswing down the stretch – that is, until the Maryland game:

“They have been much better with a healthy Tomislav Ivisic, and he was starting to play better until the loss to Maryland in the Big Ten quarterfinal.”

But given Illinois' recent steps in the right direction, and even considering that blowout loss to the Terps in the Big Ten tourney, Moore has the Illini advancing to the second round for a matchup with Kentucky – and even taking down the Wildcats.

Between Kentucky’s injury struggles and Illinois' recent burst of momentum, Moore has the Illini punching its ticket to the Sweet 16. But that’s where the ride ends.

Although the Illini nearly dethroned the then-No. 1 Volunteers back in December, Moore points to one reason they will fall short again:

Experience.

Tennessee is very, very mature, and Illinois is very, very young. In the math of college basketball, that adds up to success for one squad and “fell just short” for the other.

And although the Illini lived the flip side of the story last season, riding the veteran shoulders of Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask to the Elite Eight, it appears this season that they get stuck with the short end of the stick – at least according to Moore.

“I wouldn’t blame someone for falling for the Illini," he wrote, "but I’m betting on experience.” 

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Plotting Illinois Basketball's Path to a National Championship

Which Opponent Should Illinois Fans Want: Xavier or Texas?

FOX's John Fanta Has a Surprise Prediction for Illinois in NCAA Tournament