Why Illinois Rose in Andy Katz's Rankings After Losing to Michigan State

Once a college basketball team enters the top five of any rankings, upward movement – even incremental movement – becomes incredibly tough to come by. Not only does a club have to keep winning, but it very likely needs a squad (or two) above it to fall at some point, as well.

That was the predicament Illinois faced as it sought to climb even higher in the national ranks – mostly in pursuit of a prized one seed in the NCAA Tournament (which goes to the top four teams as chosen by the event selection committee).

The Illini were bumped up to No. 5 in the AP poll last week, a slot matched by well-respected hoops analyst Andy Katz of the NCAA. And after blasting Northwestern in Champaign on Wednesday night, Illinois appeared poised to continue its upward trek – that is, if it could steal a road victory against then-No. 10 Michigan State in East Lansing.

For the majority of Saturday night at the Breslin Center, Illinois was seemingly in line to do just that. But as Tom Izzo-led teams often do, the Spartans just hung around, staying within striking distance before eventually taking a lead as time dwindled in the second half.

After a pair of cold-blooded free throws from Illinois wing Jake Davis, the game went into overtime – a period entirely controlled by Michigan State and its lead guard Jeremy Fears.

How Illinois climbed in Andy Katz's rankings despite a loss

Tomislav Ivisi — Michigan State's Cam Ward, center, celebrates after a dunk against Illinois during the first half on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Illini ultimately saw their 12-game win streak come to a halt, as they fell 85-82 in their first loss of the calendar year. The assumption would be that Illinois would take a tumble in all the updated rankings. But, at least in the eyes of Katz, the Illini weren’t going anywhere.

In fact, shockingly, Katz actually bumped Illinois up from No. 5 to No. 4 in his updated Power 37 – which was released on Monday morning. At first glance, that move seems incomprehensible.

But upon closer look, it becomes the logical, by-process-of-elimination choice. Duke and UConn – both of which were ahead of Illinois in the polls – lost on the road to ranked opponents (North Carolina and St. John’s). Although the Blue Devils stayed ahead of the Illini in Katz’s rankings, the Huskies dropped a few spots, opening the door for Illinois.

Behind the Illini, a valid argument could be made for Houston supplanting Illinois, as the Cougars scored an impressive road victory at BYU. But aside from them, no one else in the Illini's near vicinity moved the needle.

NEW #Power37 from @TheAndyKatz 🚨

1. Arizona
2. Michigan
3. Duke
4. Illinois
5. St. John’s
6. UConn
7. Houston
8. Kansas
9. Iowa State
10. Nebraska pic.twitter.com/gnkArrkD9t
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 9, 2026

Michigan State itself dropped a game at Minnesota earlier in the week – a loss that is even more of an eyesore considering the Golden Gophers just fell at home to Maryland (just the Terrapins' second Big Ten win of the year).

Here’s the key takeaway: Illinois’ loss at Michigan State hurts the Illini in the Big Ten standings – and that’s about it. Brad Underwood’s club is still in the thick of the race for a one seed, and for now, it continues to hold a firm grip on a two seed.

If Illinois manages to avoid the land mines ahead and stave off No. 2 Michigan (the lone remaining ranked opponent on the docket) at home in late February, there’s no telling how high this Illini unit can rise heading into the postseason.