CFP Watch: Evaluating Illinois Football's Playoff Chances After Week 2

Illinois hasn’t been to the College Football Playoff in … well, ever. But 2025 just may be the year for the Illini. Led by coach Bret Bielema and his excellent staff, along with star veteran quarterback Luke Altmyer, all the pieces of the puzzle appear to be falling into place.

Currently listed inside the top 10 of the AP poll – a feat not seen in Champaign since 2001 – the Illini are the No. 9 team in the country yet still have an uphill climb to find themselves in the end-of-year CFP picture.

Per Illinois’ least-favorite analytical tool – ESPN’s FPI – Bielema’s Illini have just a 14.3 percent chance of earning a berth in the coveted postseason tournament. We don’t entirely agree with that number, although, realistically, our estimation likely lies closer to that figure than most Illinois fans would want to hear. Sorry – we gotta call it like we see it.

So with that, here’s what Illinois on SI believes the Illini must do to reach the CFP – and here’s how confident we are in their ability to make it happen:

Expected loss

Ohio State

The Buckeyes are the best team in college football. Can the Illini beat them? Maybe. How likely is a win? You’ve got a better chance with that Powerball ticket. We’ll put a tally in the loss column.

Must-wins

Western Michigan
At Purdue
Rutgers
Maryland
At Wisconsin
Northwestern

Technically, if the Illini lost one of these matchups and won every other game, they’d be in. But, as mentioned above, we’re going to assume Illinois falls to Ohio State. And although the CFP committee will hardly fault the Illini for that, a two-loss team with one of its blemishes coming against a low-level Big Ten squad would become a more difficult sell.

One loss is allowed

At Indiana
USC
At Washington

USC and Washington may not be ranked, but let’s make something crystal clear: The Trojans and the Huskies are high-quality teams – especially the former. Meanwhile, the latter has one of the best home-field advantages in the country. Neither game will be a walk in the park. But on the bright side, the committee will recognize that. Indiana, on the other hand, doesn’t need much introduction as a 2024 CFP team and current top-25 squad.

An example of a pass that Jayden Maiava doesn’t do last year. Tough in a collapsing pocket and lobbing it over a defender rather than gunning it as hard as he can ✌🏻 pic.twitter.com/qCtpEzzSEj
— Arrogant Nation✌🏻 (@FightOnRusty) September 9, 2025

With all that in mind, Illinois can drop just one of these games and still have a shot at the CFP. A 10-2 Illini squad with losses to just Ohio State and, let’s say, Washington on the road is a virtual shoo-in.

Can Illinois actually do it?

Dec 31, 2024; Orlando, FL, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema watches on during the fourth quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-Imagn Images | Jeremy Reper-Imagn Images

Well, this is where it gets tough. Sure, the Illini are capable of beating each team on their schedule, but how confident are we in their ability to navigate the path we just laid out for them? 50-50? That's pushing it. A 25-percent chance may even be overambitious. A 9-3 campaign is seemingly the most likely outcome (and Illinois could just as easily go 8-4). Still, a 10-2 season is possible – but everything mjust shake out perfectly.