ESPN's FPI Predicts Illinois vs. Ohio State: Do the Illini Have a Chance?

The metric expects the visiting Buckeyes to win the game, but it does give the Illini a puncher's chance

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day watches warm ups prior to the NCAA football game against the Washington Huskies at Husky Stadium in Seattle on Sept. 27, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Illinois is no stranger to being the underdog on its own field – even within the past two seasons. Last year, despite being ranked in two of these matchups (against Michigan and Minnesota), Bret Bielema’s club was the underdog in home games against Kansas, Michigan and Minnesota.

The Jayhawks (67.9 percent), Wolverines (58.7 percent) and Gophers (52.7 percent) were each favored heading into their respective contests in Champaign, per ESPN’s Football Power Index metric.

Yet Illinois knocked off two of three. Interestingly enough, it was the two squads the home team was given the lowest chance of beating: Kansas and Michigan.

And in 2025, it has been more of the same. Then-No. 21 USC was given a shocking 72.9 percent chance of beating Illinois at Gies Memorial Stadium – and, as Illini fans surely haven’t forgotten, the home team swiftly proved that projection to be inaccurate. 

ESPN’s FPI predicts Illinois vs. Ohio State

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day watches warm ups prior to the NCAA football game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Oct. 4, 2025. Ohio State won 42-3. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Now, heading into the top-25 clash between No. 17 Illinois and No. 1 Ohio State, the Illini are once again on the wrong side of ESPN’s analytical tool. The FPI gives Illinois just a 17.7 percent chance of knocking off the nation’s top-ranked club.

Eyes forward. 1-0 mentality. pic.twitter.com/QSfVkbC9R3

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 6, 2025

Where is Illinois ranked in ESPN’s FPI?

Oct 4, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema stands on the sidelines during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Following a Week 6 victory over Purdue, Illinois climbed two spots in the FPI, from No. 30 to No. 28. Notably, the metric projects the Illini to win 8.5 games in 2025, while it gives them a 19.8 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff.

Where is Ohio State ranked in ESPN’s FPI?

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day watches during the NCAA football game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Oct. 4, 2025. Ohio State won 42-3. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As expected, the Buckeyes are the top-rated program in FPI's rankings. They’re projected to win 11.5 games in the regular season, with a 22.9 percent chance of winning out. It also gives Ohio State an 89.9 percent chance of making the CFP, along with a 20.0 percent chance of winning the national championship.

Is FPI’s assessment fair?

Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema calls a time out during the first half against the Southern California Trojans at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Sometimes, the analytics are off. In this scenario, the FPI’s prediction is fairly accurate – but perhaps may overstate Illinois’ chances.

Especially after Ohio State finally unleashed quarterback Julian Sayin in Week 6 (he went for 326 yards and three scores, with just four incompletions), and with the offense firing on all cylinders to match the already-dominant defense, Illinois would maybe win this outing one out of 10 times. We would say a 10 percent chance for the home squad is a spot-on projection – although some experts believe the Illini don't even have a chance.