Illinois Football vs. USC: ESPN's FPI Predicts Clear Winner in Top-25 Showdown

The Illini need to add a conference win to their resume this weekend. Will they? ESPN's Football Power Index makes its pick:

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) drops back to pass against the Michigan State Spartans during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

No. 23 Illinois (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten) desperately needs a win to right the ship – and, if the Illini had their preference, a colossal one. A matchup with No. 21 USC (4-0, 2-0 Big Ten) is on the docket Saturday in Champaign (11 a.m. CT, FOX), posing a perfect opportunity for the Illini to restore their confidence with a triumph over a well-respected foe and to re-engage their fanbase on homecoming weekend.

Homecoming Week, Same Mission: 1-0 pic.twitter.com/p8FDBuaewL

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) September 22, 2025

ESPN’s FPI predicts Illinois vs. USC

Now, for the sobering news: The Illini don’t appear to have the upper hand, at least not according to ESPN’s Football Power Index metric. Despite being the home squad and ranked just two spots below the Trojans in the AP poll, Illinois is not the favorite.

In fact, the Illini aren’t just the underdog, they’re the underdog by a country mile. ESPN’s metric gives the home team just a 27.1 percent chance of earning its first conference win of the year, while the visiting Trojans are given a 72.9 percent chance of maintaining their unblemished record.

Where does ESPN’s FPI slot USC?

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

The analytical tool has been high on the Trojans since the beginning of the 2025 season – and never more so than heading into Week 5. FPI tabs USC as the No. 8 squad in the country, even giving it a 12.2 percent probability of winning the Big Ten, not to mention a relatively high 49.2 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff.

Where is Illinois in the FPI?

Illinois' Head Coach Bret Bielema during the Indiana versus Illinois football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025 | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If you scroll through the FPI rankings for what feels like ages, you finally arrive at the No. 37 spot, featuring Illinois. The Illini are given an oh-so generous CFP hope of just 2.6 percent – which, in reality, is likely a spot-on assessment.

In a glimmer of positivity, Illinois has a 92.1 percent chance of winning six games, meaning Illini fans are quite likely to see their squad go bowling in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2010-2011.

Is the Illinois-USC FPI prediction fair?

Without a doubt. USC’s offense, led by mastermind Lincoln Riley, is firing on all cylinders, pouring on 52.5 points per game, including 39.0 per outing over two Big Ten games.

Illinois’ defense, as everyone with a pair of eyeballs and the channel tuned to NBC saw last Saturday night, is struggling immensely. Expect the Illini to put together a better defensive performance against the Trojans than they put together in Week 4, but this contest still figures to be a shootout – which gives USC quite the advantage.