ESPN FPI Predicts Illinois vs. Ohio State: Do the Illini Have a Shot?

Illinois football will be hit with a trio of 2026 firsts in Week 4. This Saturday serves as the Illini’s first road game of the year, first Big Ten contest of the year and first ranked opponent of the year.

To make matters tougher, it’s not any old road environment – nor is it any run-of-the-mill Big Ten foe or ranked team. Illinois (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) travels to Columbus to take on No. 7 Ohio State (2-1, 0-0) on Saturday (11 a.m. CT, FOX).

Despite the number next to the Buckeyes’ name in the AP poll, OSU is still considered by many to be the strongest team in college football – just ask the metrics. ESPN’s Football Power Index slots Ohio State as the No. 1 team in the country despite its Week 2 loss to Texas (the Longhorns are No. 2 in FPI).

So what does it all mean for Illinois heading into Week 4?

ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts Illinois vs. Ohio State

Sep 12, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema before a game with the Duke Blue Devils at Gies Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Per the FPI metric, the Illini, who are way down the list at No. 44, have just a 4.7 percent chance of walking out of Ohio Stadium with their third victory of 2026. For some context, that’s almost the same chance the FPI gave Southern Illinois – 3.6 percent for the Salukis – of knocking off Illinois in Week 3.

Additionally, Western Michigan, which nearly pulled off the upset of the year in Week 1 in the Big House against Michigan, actually had a higher chance (5.9 percent) of beating the Wolverines entering that game than the Illini do Saturday. Suffice to say, FPI doesn’t exactly paint the most promising picture.

(For those curious, Illinois entered last year’s matchup with a 17.7 percent chance of beating then-No. 1 Ohio State in Champaign.)

Is ESPN’s FPI prediction a fair assessment of Illinois-Ohio State?

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day watches during the NCAA football game against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Sept. 19, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Essentially, the metric projects Illinois to win this game just once out of 20 times. Let’s go through the potential outcomes: 1) Ohio State puts together an average (or better) performance. Automatic Buckeyes win. 2) Ohio State plays below average, but Illinois plays average (or worse). Still a Buckeyes win.

But then ... 3) Ohio State finds its floor and dwells there for 60 minutes and the Illini play to their absolute ceiling on both sides of the ball, get a few advantageous whistles and bounces. Illinois wins.

Again, the odds of that outcome are painfully low for Illini Nation. But not impossible. With a more optimistic outlook is another ESPN metric: Bill Connelly’s SP+. That analytical tool projected the outcome of this matchup and gave Illinois a nine percent chance of victory. But it also projected the final score, and, unsurprisingly, it’s the Buckeyes by three scores (37-16, to be exact).

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