Illinois Football Surges in ESPN's SP+ After Week 3 Win as Ohio State Looms

In the aftermath of Illinois’ letdown against Duke in Week 2, the metrics painted a bleak picture for the remainder of the 2026 campaign – and none more so than ESPN’s analytical tools.

The Football Power Index saw the Illini on a 5-7 path. Meanwhile, Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranked Illinois all the way down at No. 47 in the country. But after Week 3, one of those objective, forward-facing tools has changed its tune.

Illinois blasts Southern Illinois – and ESPN’s SP+ takes notice

Sep 3, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema shakes hands with the crowd before an NCAA game against UAB at Gies Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For the first time all year, the Illini were dominant in all three phases. They allowed the Salukis just a 52.4 completion percentage and held them to 1.1 rushing yards per carry. Safety Matthew Bailey took an interception 88 yards to the house. Also, Illinois held the visitors to just 1-for-4 on fourth-down attempts.

On the other side of the ball, Katin Houser passed for 305 yards and two touchdowns (along with an interception), while the ground game cranked out 198 yards and three scores on 7.1 yards per carry – both sparked by a 77-yard carry from Aidan Laughery.

AIDAN LAUGHERY TAKES IT 77 YARDS TO THE HOUSE 🏠 @IlliniFootball

Watch on Peacock pic.twitter.com/3qrbLQ0zsG
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 19, 2026

The Illini totaled a season-high 503 yards and yielded a season-low 257 yards. The lone negatives (if we’re nitpicking): Illinois only broke even in the turnover battle (one apiece) while Bielema’s usually disciplined group committed five penalties – though those miscues were down from the previous week.

But SIU was just an FCS opponent, right? Well, yes. But even with the metrics taking the matchup into account, it appears as though the Illini have really moved the needle – at least as far as Connelly’s SP+ is concerned.

Among the top 80 FBS teams, only North Dakota State (which climbed 22 spots) enjoyed a larger jump than Illinois’ 14-spot leap following Week 3 action. The Illini offense, which has been a key strength throughout the campaign, inched ahead to No. 23 in the country. Special teams is actually Illinois’ top-rated unit at No. 21, while the defense is slowly rising as well (No. 52).

ESPN’s SP+ predicts the final score of Illinois vs. Ohio State

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day shakes hands with Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema following the Buckeyes' 34-16 win in the NCAA football game at Gies Memorial Stadium in Champaign on Oct. 11, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The bad news for Illinois: Its Week 4 matchup – Ohio State – is also on an upward trajectory after this past weekend’s action. The Buckeyes’ rise of one spot was hardly newsworthy, but their current standing at No. 1 certainly is.

Ohio State, per SP+, has the nation’s No. 5 offense and the No. 1 defense. Although the Illini can't compete on those fronts, they do have a huge advantage at … special teams. Ryan Day’s club has just the No. 74-rated special teams unit in college football.

WEEK 4 SP+ PICKS

Texas 29, Tennessee 28
LSU 27, A&M 23
Oregon 30, USC 29
Georgia 31, OU 18
Michigan 23.2, Iowa 22.9!
Mizzou 27.1, Miss St 26.6!
Indiana 35, Northwestern 14
Ohio State 37, Illinois 16
Utah 29, Iowa St 20
Bama 30, S Caro 21

Full list: https://t.co/hE9ryDBYrH pic.twitter.com/RRdhLvtN4B
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 20, 2026

Obviously, the Buckeyes will walk into Saturday’s matchup in Columbus as this contest's Goliath. And although the SP+ predictor has Illinois putting up more points than one may expect – it foresees 16 big ones from the visitors – it won’t be enough to hang with Ohio State, according to the metric, which predicts a 37-16 victory for the Buckeyes.

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