Illinois Climbs in Latest ESPN FPI Rankings, CFP Hopes Spike After USC Win

The Illini are one of the biggest FPI risers of the weekend following their win over USC. And the door to the CFP appears to be cracked back open.

Sep 13, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) applauds teammates during the second half against the Western Michigan Broncos at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The metrics and advanced numbers aren’t exactly Illinois football’s No. 1 fan. And nothing supports that notion more than ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

The analytical tool gave Illinois (4-1, 1-0 Big Ten) just a 27.1 percent chance of knocking off then-No. 21 USC at home in Week 5. (In defense of the metric, it wasn’t the only doubter of Illinois.) Yet the Illini prevailed 34-32 by way of a game-winning field goal off the foot of kicker David Olano. 

NO. 23 ILLINOIS WINS IT 🙌

David Olano hits the walk-off FG to down No. 21 USC. pic.twitter.com/yxEsaeAK4l

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 27, 2025

Somehow, following that victory over a Trojans squad that was pegged as the No. 8 team in the country per ESPN’s FPI, the Illini merely inched up in the metrics’ rankings. 

Where is Illinois listed in ESPN’s Football Power Index?

Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema reacts during the second half against the Southern California Trojans at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Bret Bielema’s squad climbed up from No. 37 to No. 30 with its victory on Saturday. Interestingly, Illinois’ ascent was tied for the second-largest of any team in the top 50 of the FPI.

And the only squad to make a bigger climb – Duke rose 20 spots to No. 42 following a 38-3 win over Syracuse – also bodes well for the Illini, considering they knocked off the Blue Devils 45-19 earlier this year.

How far did USC drop in ESPN’s FPI?

Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley talks with players during the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

One would naturally assume that after USC fell to an Illinois team ranked No. 37 at the time by FPI, the numbers-crunching tool would perhaps be less excited about the Trojans. But although the FPI did drop Lincoln Riley’s club, the extent they fell is quite a head-scratcher: USC slid from No. 8 to just No. 10.

In a roundabout way, that could somehow be encouraging for Illinois. Not only did the Illini knock off a highly rated team, but that team is still well-respected following its loss and, ideally, will rattle off a handful of big-time wins throughout the rest of its season.

What are Illinois’ College Football Playoff chances?

Sep 20, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema walks onto the field prior to the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

In clear-cut good news for the Illini, the analytical tool is much higher on their chances of making a run to the College Football Playoff. Unfortunately for Illinois fans, there’s also some not-so-encouraging news: those chances still aren’t high.

The FPI gives Illinois a 12.9 percent chance of earning a CFP berth. But although that number isn’t quite as high as some fans may like, the Illini had just a 2.6 percent chance of finding themselves in the 2025 CFP just one week ago, per the same metric. And as long as Illinois keeps winning, that number will only continue to climb.