Illinois Football Countdown to Kickoff: Two Thoughts Before 2025 Opener

With the Illini football season nearly underway, Illinois on SI will have a thought for every number of days until Western Illinois, each day this week

Dec 31, 2024; Orlando, FL, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini wide receiver Malik Elzy (8) and Illinois Fighting Illini wide receiver Ashton Hollins (2) lead the team out of the tunnel before the game against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-Imagn Images | Jeremy Reper-Imagn Images

Only two sleeps remain before Illinois football returns, with the No. 12-ranked Illini set to open their 2025 season against Western Illinois under the Friday night lights at Champaign's Memorial Stadium (6:30 p.m. CT). Below we offer two thoughts to mull over in the meantime.

(On Thursday, Illinois on SI will present its final big thought going into the 2025 Illinois football season.)

Illinois Football Countdown to Kickoff: Five Thoughts Before 2025 Opener

Illinois Football Countdown to Kickoff: Four Thoughts Before 2025 Opener

Illinois Football Countdown to Kickoff: Three Thoughts Before 2025 Opener

The Duke game may be the turning point of Illinois' season

Nov 2, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema gets a hand from the crowd before the start of a game with the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Illinois, after its Week 1 get-the-blood-flowing contest against Western Illinois, will head southeast to Durham, North Carolina, for a road test at Duke. Although the Blue Devils’ basketball program often steals the spotlight, the football program has turned things around over the past few years, rattling off three straight seasons of eight-plus wins.

Ballyhooed Tulane transfer Darian Mensah leads the way at quarterback for Duke, which went 5-1 at home last season (losing only to No. 22 SMU by a point in overtime). In Durham, that counts as momentum on the gridiron, and even ESPN's analytics – Illinois' least favorite metric system – like the Blue Devils' chances against a preseason top-15 team (albeit barely, at just 51.4 percent). 

Regardless of the pregame numbers and predictions, the outcome of the Duke game carries heavy repercussions for Illinois. If the Illini win it, they likely walk into a Week 4 matchup at Indiana undefeated – and with a fantastic opportunity to add a resume-building win and realistically put enter the Ohio State game at 6-0. On the flip side, if coach Bret Bielema’s squad falls in Durham, then the pressure is officially on. To earn a spot in the College Football Playoff, Illinois would be able to afford only one loss to another Big Ten team – and the Buckeyes will ... be ... tough.

Was Illinois 'lucky' in 2024?

Nov 23, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini wide receiver Pat Bryant (13) gains yards after catch as Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive back Shaquan Loyal (6) and defensive back Desmond Igbinosun (4) pursue during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

This one keeps gnawing at us. Illini fans surely don’t want to admit it, and likely want to chalk up all of those late-game heroics to the ice in the veins of quarterback Luke Altmyer and wideout Pat Bryant. In reality, though, no football team wins that many close games without benefiting from some good fortune.

Illinois trailed in the fourth quarter of five of its wins. Does that mean it could have just as easily been a 5-8 season? Probably not. There is something to the idea of Altmyer keeping his cool and giving the Illini an advantage when the pressure rises. Offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. also seems to save his best calls for the clutchest moments.

PAT BRYANT SCORES THE GAME-WINNING TD ON 4TH DOWN! 😱@IlliniFootball pic.twitter.com/ndso5u3X8B

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) November 23, 2024

Still, just one holding call, an errant pass from Altmyer or a miscommunication in the secondary could have dramatically altered the outcome of the Illini’s season. Perhaps they have learned from past experiences and will put more games out of reach in 2025. But if Illinois finds itself in a lot of tight spots again in 2025, trailing in the final frame of games as often as it did in 2024, there will be no CFP berth, no payoff on one of the most hotly anticipated Illini football seasons in at least a quarter century and no joy in Champaign.