Illinois Trails Two Upcoming Big Ten Opponents in Key ESPN Predictive Ranking

Illinois’ 45-19 victory over Duke last weekend was indisputably the Big Ten’s best win of the week. Oregon’s 69-3 blasting of Oklahoma State sent a message, as putting a 66-point pounding on any Power 4 opponent holds weight, but the Cowboys (zero Big 12 wins in 2024) are likely the worst high-major team in college football. Michigan State’s double-overtime win over Boston College was an emphatic victory, but it didn’t match the Illini’s dominant performance on the road.

Yet, somehow, Illinois continues to be disrespected by the metrics, ranking below fellow conference teams that haven’t proven themselves against any worthwhile competition – including a pair of upcoming opponents.

After the Illini’s final tune-up of 2025 (in which they face Western Michigan in Week 3), they travel east for a matchup at Indiana before returning home to host USC.

And both of those squads, despite neither having faced a high-major foe thus far in 2025, rate ahead of Illinois in ESPN’s predictive measure created by Bill Connelly: SP+ rankings.

Indiana

Sep 6, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti watches his team during warmups prior to the game against the Kennesaw State Owls at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The Hoosiers, behind a 47-point win over Kennesaw State in Week 2, leapt up 21 spots in SP+ and are currently ranked No. 16 in the country according to the metric. Their offense (21st) and defense (24th) each rank in the top 25.

USC

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Trojans, on the other hand, have been well-respected by SP+ from the start of the season, despite being the only unranked team (in terms of the AP poll) out of the trio. USC is ranked No. 10 in the nation by SP+, with the top-rated offense in the country and the 38th-best defense. The only criticism with that ranking on offense would be the lack of competition the Trojans have met, but 810 passing yards and seven touchdowns through the air, along with 8.6 yards per carry and 10 scores on the ground leaves little room for quibbling.

Illinois

Aug 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema leads his team during the Illini Walk before an NCAA football game against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Well, if Indiana jumped 21 spots after beating on Kennesaw State, then Illinois must have climbed at least 10 or fifteen, right? Wrong. In fact, the Illini only advanced to No. 17 from their slot at No. 21 last week. Similar to Indiana, Bret Bielema’s squad is well-rounded, with the 24th-best offense and 23rd-rated defense in the nation.

Luke Altmyer finds Justin Bowick to extend the @IlliniFootball lead 😤

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— Always College Football (@AlwaysCFB) September 6, 2025

Key takeaways

All that math ... honestly, who cares? Tell us what it really means, nerd. OK, let's break it down:

Illinois-Indiana will be a well-matched battle of very similar squads. As for the Trojans, their offense is a well-oiled machine that operates at an unbelievably high level. Moral of the story: Illinois doesn't quite have that ultra-light conference schedule that drew the “this year’s Indiana” comparisons in the preseason.

The Illini may have proved themselves in Week 2, but that was one game. With Big Ten play on the horizon, they must now prove themselves week in and week out. That dream College Football Playoff season that Champaign is beginning to see as a reality won’t come to fruition unless Illinois can hold strong against powerful conference opponents – including two teams that, per ESPN’s metrics, are some of the best the country has to offer.