Why Illinois' Clash With USC Is the Make-or-Break Moment of Its 2025 Campaign

As a wise man once said, “It ain’t about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward, how much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done.”

Now, that wise man – Rocky Balboa, admittedly a fictional character in an iconic boxing film – certainly wasn’t talking about Illinois football in 2025. But his words ring true for Bret Bielema’s squad nonetheless.

The importance of Illinois-USC

As of this exact moment, with No. 21 USC (4-0, 2-0 Big Ten) awaiting No. 23 Illinois (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten) this Saturday at Memorial Stadium in Champaign (11 a.m. CT. FOX), the Illini’s record and ranking are entirely meaningless.

Last week’s game, a 63-10 loss against Indiana that is surely forever etched in the memory of Illinois’ players and coaching staff, doesn’t define this 2025 campaign. But how the Illini respond in Week 5 will.

Homecoming Week, Same Mission: 1-0 pic.twitter.com/p8FDBuaewL
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) September 22, 2025

Bouncing back from a 53-point loss with a win over a ranked opponent can send a message but, more importantly, help rebuild Illinois’ confidence and belief in itself – which is undoubtedly wavering as we speak.

The Illini have hit a fork in the road, and which path they ultimately take will determine whether 2025 is a stereotypical letdown season for an Illinois squad with high hopes or the pinnacle of perseverance, persistence and resiliency.

How Illinois’ 2025 season can look if it knocks off USC

Aug 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema before a game with the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

There is no question about it: The Illini are more than capable of taking down the Trojans. In reality, their biggest obstacle is themselves. Having lost defensive back Xavier Scott certainly won’t make things easier, but Illinois has the ability on both sides of the ball to effectively handle USC. The key factor at this point may be the Illini’s morale and confidence.

Now, if the Illini prevail in Week 5, they enter an outing with Purdue at 4-1. The Boilermakers, who are 2-2 and have lost their two games against high-major opponents by a combined 42 points, are likely no match for the Illini, so we’ll pencil in another win.

That sets up a 5-1 Illinois squad that has recovered much of its confidence and swagger as it welcomes No. 1 Ohio State to Champaign. From there, the Illini have a real opportunity to make a massive statement to the college football world – and, potentially, reenter the College Football Playoff picture.

What if Illinois loses to USC?

In this scenario, the outlook is bleak. The Illini drop to 0-2 in Big Ten play and see their CFP hopes almost entirely snuffed out. The Purdue matchup becomes a tad worrisome, but even with a Week 6 win, Illinois would face off against Ohio State with its head hanging low and would be up against getting run out of its own stadium in front of a sold-out crowd. That translates to a disappointing 4-3 record after seven weeks of football.

A bowl game would still be in the cards, but this Illini team – which entered the year with those aforementioned sky-high expectations – would be short on motivation, not to mention belief.

Moral of the story: Winning this Saturday is a non-negotiable. And you had better believe that everyone in Illinois’ locker room knows it, from the managers and ball boys to Bielema himself.