Illinois' Updated Path to the College Football Playoff as Ohio State Awaits

The Illini still have several routes that would take them to the promised land. Here are their options:

Aug 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema before a game with the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The general consensus after Illinois got blasted by Indiana in Week 4: The Illini are entirely out of the College Football Playoff picture. But, just a few weeks later, the narrative has shifted.

Bret Bielema’s crew took down then-No. 21 USC in a thriller before cruising past Purdue on the road. And in a game-changer for Illinois, an expected CFP lock from the Big Ten – Penn State – fumbled away what looked like a sure thing at UCLA in Week 6, not just cracking the door but fully opening it.

Took care of business. 1-0 pic.twitter.com/vM9W5uSE9x

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 6, 2025

The Nittany Lions fell against Oregon in Week 5 in a game that, considering it was played at Happy Valley, they probably should have won. But the Ducks are, well, the Ducks, so few batted an eye.

But the Bruins? That's another ball game. Penn State went to previously winless UCLA and came up short. Now, between a home date with Indiana and a road contest at Ohio State, James Franklin's squad is up against it. Given where they're at, the Nittany Lions could wind up with three losses, perhaps even four – which would remove them from the CFP mix.

Now, after making it abundantly clear how wide open the path to the CFP is, let’s take a look at Illinois’ potential routes to get there:

Win out

Oct 4, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) looks on against the Purdue Boilermakers during the first quarter at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

This one is fairly self-explanatory. An 11-1 Illinois team with victories over Ohio State, USC and Washington on the road speaks for itself. The Illini would be 100 percent locked into the CFP in this scenario.

Eyes forward. 1-0 mentality. pic.twitter.com/QSfVkbC9R3

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 6, 2025

Play Ohio State close, beat everyone else

Aug 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini linebacker Gabe Jacas (17) jumps on teammate Illinois Fighting Illini defensive lineman Eli Coenen (96) after a sack on Western Illinois Leathernecks quarterback Chris Irvin (5) during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Falling at the hands of the No. 1 team in the country is the expectation – even at home. But if the Illini can play a competitive game (within two scores would get the job done) and win out from there, preferably in convincing fashion, they would very likely make the CFP cut.

Beat Ohio State, lose to Washington, win out from there

Oct 4, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini running back Kaden Feagin (3) jumps to avoid tackle by Purdue Boilermakers defensive back Traveon Wright (17) during the second quarter at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

In this unique and perhaps unexpected scenario, Illinois would also likely be in – assuming it avoids a blowout loss to Washington. If the Illini knock off the Buckeyes before falling in a close one to the Huskies, then win out, they likely earn a berth. (Disclaimer: if Washington also somehow managed to finish 10-2 – highly unlikely – then it would be in over Illinois due to owning the head-to-head advantage.)

Beat Ohio State, lose to a school not named Washington

Oct 4, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Ryan Browne (15) runs with the ball against Illinois Fighting Illini defensive end Leon Lowery (9) during the first quarter at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

As for the least likely path of all, this one would be interesting. If Illinois has an Ohio State win on its resume, along with USC and at Washington, yet a 53-point loss to Indiana and another blemish from a so-so Big Ten team, what does the committee do with that? Well, it would hinge on how the rest of the country shakes out. (Is the ACC a one-bid conference? What about the Big 12? Is Notre Dame in?) 

Still, as of this exact moment, Illinois controls its destiny. Triumph in every game remaining on their slate, and the Illini find themselves in the CFP. But with the top-ranked Buckeyes awaiting, that task will be much easier said than done.