Why Illinois Football Is the Underdog Against Unranked Minnesota

The 24th-ranked Illini opened as favorites vs. the Gophers, but the line has moved dramatically

Nov 4, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini running back Kaden Feagin (3) celebrates his touchdown with tight end Tip Reiman (89) during the second half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

When No. 24 Illinois (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) opened at most sportsbooks as a 2½-point favorite in Saturday's game against Minnesota (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten), it might have seemed like a strangely puny point spread.

Ranked vs. unranked. Better record vs. lesser record. Plus, the home-field edge for the Illini at 11 a.m. CT (FS1) at Memorial Stadium in Champaign.

Illinois with a 60% win probability at home vs Minnesota.

The Illini currently has a three game win streak over the Gophers. https://t.co/sbSN4kRih7 pic.twitter.com/al7cRf9xSp

— Illinois Football Focus (@IlliniFB) October 31, 2024

Only 2½? Really?

The betting on this game has proved the answer to be no. Except the line hasn't grown in favor of the Illini; quite the opposite, in fact. As of Thursday afternoon, the Gophers were minus-3 at most sportsbooks.

So what happened? We asked Robert Cooper, sportsbook manager at SportsBetting.ag, to illuminate us.

"Minnesota has been playing well, and the Illini are coming off an ugly game [at Oregon] where they incurred some injuries," Cooper said. "We opened Illinois as a small, 1½-point favorite on Sunday afternoon, but within 15 minutes the spread had flipped to Minny -3. The quick movement was due to a few pro bettors hitting the Gophers right away. Currently, 63 percent of the money is on Minnesota, but the sharp count for that side is around 80 percent. So we're going to shade that way."

The sharps do this for a living. Clearly, they're expecting P.J. Fleck and company to row their boat out of Memorial with a "W." Keep in mind, though: The Illini have beaten the Gophers three years in a row.

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