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How Far Can Illinois Go? Breaking Down Its NCAA Women's Tournament Path

Illinois women's basketball avoided the 8-9 trap and has a legitimate path to the Sweet 16. We project how far the Illini can go in March Madness.
Pranav Hegde|
Feb 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Shauna Green during the second quarter against the UCLA Bruins at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images
Feb 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Shauna Green during the second quarter against the UCLA Bruins at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

Illinois women's basketball is not walking into March Madness with an easy draw, but it's also not stuck in a bracket with no path forward. That's a key distinction. Being in UConn’s region is obviously not ideal, because if the Illini make a deep run, they would eventually have to deal with the top overall seed and the class of women’s college basketball.

But that's a future Illini problem. In the meantime, Illinois avoided the dreaded 8-9 game out of the gate, which matters a lot. Instead of being set up to see UConn in the second round, the Illini are on the 7-seed line, giving them at least a realistic path to the second weekend before that kind of giant enters the picture.

That does not mean the road is easy – but it isn't impossible.

Round of 64: No. 10 Colorado

The first game is the most manageable on Illinois’ path, and that is exactly what you want this time of year. Colorado is solid, but it's not some sort of powerhouse that should scare a No. 7 seed. The Buffaloes have three players averaging double figures, but their leading scorer is junior guard Desiree Wooten at 13.3 points per game. That's a productive number, but not one that suggests Illinois is dealing with an overwhelming offensive machine.

Illinois has enough size, toughness and defensive ability to control the action against Colorado, which lacks the kind of talent to simply overwhelm the Illini. March games are never easy, especially in that 7-10 range, but the Buffaloes are eminently beatable. If Illinois plays its game, defends without fouling and gets the offense from its main pieces that they're capable of, there's no reason it can't move on from the first round.

Round of 32: No. 2 Vanderbilt

This is where things would get much more difficult. Vanderbilt is 27-4, has been one of the better teams in the country all season and would get Illinois on its home floor. That is a massive advantage in March. The Commodores also have the nation’s top scorer in sophomore guard Mikayla Blakes, who is averaging 27.0 points per game. She can completely change a game on her own, and would be the biggest problem Illinois has had to solve all season.

Yet Vandy isn't unbeatable, and Illinois has already shown it can compete with top teams. The Illini upended Maryland, took down Michigan State twice (including once on the Spartans' floor) and nearly beat Iowa on the road. Vanderbilt has a common opponent in Michigan, and while Illinois lost by 16 in Ann Arbor, the Commodores beat the Wolverines by three on a neutral floor. That certainly favors Vanderbilt, but it doesn't make this potential matchup hopeless.

If Illinois can throw bodies at Blakes, make other players beat them and deliver one of its better perimeter-shooting performances (which have been up and down this season), there is a path here. Vanderbilt would be a somewhat heavy favorite – and deservedly so – but rather than a guaranteed ending, this game has upset potential.

Sweet 16: No. 3 Ohio State or No. 6 Notre Dame

If Illinois reaches the second weekend, the likely reward would be a showdown with either No. 3 Ohio State or No. 6 Notre Dame. Neither is ideal, but that's the drill at this stage of March: nothing comes easy.

Ohio State is a team Illinois has already seen, and the Illini only lost by nine back in January. That was a competitive game, and Illinois has gotten better since then. March reveals which teams grew over the course of a season, and Illinois – one of the youngest teams in the NCAAs – has shown enough improvement to at least make things interesting in a rematch.

Notre Dame would present a similar challenge – just in a different form. Junior guard Hannah Hidalgo is one of the nation's elite scorers (25.2 points per game), and she is capable of taking over games the same way Vanderbilt's Blakes can. But again, Illinois would at least have a clear focal point defensively. The Illini are physical enough and disciplined enough to make life difficult on one star while forcing others into bigger roles they may not be prepared to fill.

Would Illinois be favored against Ohio State or Notre Dame? No. But by that point in March, all you really want is a puncher’s chance. Illinois would have that.

Elite Eight: No. 1 UConn

And then there is UConn.

If Illinois makes it this far, it would be an incredible run and one of the better stories of the tournament. But this is probably when reality sets in. UConn is the top overall seed for a reason. The Huskies are the class of the sport, loaded with talent, experience and championship-level composure. Illinois can reasonably talk itself into beating Colorado, upsetting Vanderbilt and maybe even grinding out a Sweet 16 win against Ohio State or Notre Dame. UConn is where the conversation changes.

At that point, it would be hard to imagine Illinois having enough offense, star power and consistent answers over 40 minutes to actually pull it off. That's no disrespect to the Illini. That's just what happens when you run into the best team in the country.

Bottom line

Illinois has a real chance to make some noise in this bracket. Winning the first game feels very possible. Beating Vanderbilt would be hard – but far from impossible. Even a Sweet 16 game against Ohio State or Notre Dame is not some hopeless draw. That's what makes this path interesting: It's difficult, though not completely closed off.

The most realistic ceiling for Illinois feels like the Sweet 16. If the Illini get there, they will have had a very successful March and proven they can beat quality teams on a big stage. An Elite Eight run would take something special. Beating UConn once there would take a miracle.

So how far can Illinois go? One win should be a goal. Two wins is possible. Three would be a fantastic, program-affirming run. Four is where the dream probably ends.

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Pranav Hegde
PRANAV HEGDE

Primarily covers Illinois football, basketball and golf, with an emphasis on news, analysis and features. Hegde, an electrical engineering student at Illinois with an affinity for sports writing, has been writing for On SI since April 2025. He can be followed and reached on Instagram @pranavhegde__.

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