Big Ten Tournament Watch: Indiana Getting Closer To The Danger Zone

As losses pile up for Indiana, odds of missing the Big Ten Tournament increase.

Indiana's Malik Reneau (5) scores between Valdislav Goldin (50) and Danny Wolf (1) during the Indiana versus Michigan mens basketball game at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Saturday, Feb. 8, 2025. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – As the losses pile up for Indiana’s men’s basketball team – the Hoosiers have lost five in a row and seven of their last eight games – they get closer to the Big Ten Tournament danger zone.

With the Big Ten expanded to 18 teams, the league will only take 15 teams to the Big Ten Tournament in March at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

When Indiana was 5-3 in Big Ten play, the prospect of missing the Big Ten Tournament seemed remote.

Now the Hoosiers are 5-8. Even worse for Indiana is that some teams that appeared buried have revived themselves.

In the last week alone, Indiana has been passed by Ohio State, Nebraska, Southern California and Rutgers. Now tied for 12th place with Oregon, the Hoosiers are only one game away of potential Big Ten Tournament elimination.

Where Indiana could get itself into trouble is via tiebreakers. Indiana lost to Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern – all teams it could realistically find itself tied up in tiebreakers. Indiana would have favorable tiebreakers with USC, Rutgers, Minnesota, and for now, Penn State.

Once you get into multi-team tiebreakers? It gets complicated, but one thing is certain. Indiana needs to put some wins on the board to feel safe to make the field.

Here’s some Big Ten Tournament scenarios to consider for the Hoosiers.

Where Indiana Stands By Bart Torvik’s Projections

Barttorvik.com has Indiana finishing 7-13 in the Big Ten with remaining wins against Penn State at home and Washington on the road. This projection uses Torvik's predicted outcomes for the remaining Big Ten games.

If all of those predicted outcomes played out, Indiana would tie Northwestern for 13th place in the Big Ten. Since Indiana lost at Northwestern on Jan. 22, the Hoosiers would be the No. 14 seed. In this scenario, the Hoosiers would play No. 11 Nebraska in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. The winner would face No. 6 Wisconsin in the next round.

Incidentally, if every one of Torvik’s predictions came true? Michigan would win the Big Ten with a 16-4 record. Michigan State and Purdue would finish a game behind.

What If Indiana Wins All Of Its Remaining Games?

The best Indiana can do is finish 12-8 in the Big Ten. Based on that, and Torvik’s predictions in the other games, Indiana would finish in a tie for seventh place with Illinois. Illinois would win the tiebreaker for the No. 7 seed, so the Hoosiers would be the No. 8 seed and play No. 9 seed Ohio State on the second day of the Big Ten Tournament.

What If Indiana Loses All Of Its Remaining Games?

Indiana would finish 5-15 and in a tie with Penn State for 16th place. The Hoosiers would miss the Big Ten Tournament as they would be the No. 17 seed in this case. Only 15 teams make the Big Ten Tournament.

What If Indiana Wins Its Remaining Home Games?

Indiana has home games left against UCLA, Purdue, Penn State and Ohio State. If the Hoosiers ran the table at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, and based on Torvik’s other predicted scores, Indiana would be 10-10 in the Big Ten and finish in a three-way tie with Ohio State and Oregon in eighth place.

Indiana would lose a tiebreaker against Oregon for the No. 8 seed, because the Ducks would have a 2-0 round robin record against the Buckeyes and Hoosiers.

Indiana would win a tiebreaker against Ohio State for the No. 9 seed based on a 2-1 round-robin record since the Hoosiers would sweep the Buckeyes in this scenario. That’s big, because the No. 9 seed is the last one available to avoid day one of the Big Ten Tournament.

In this case, No. 9 Indiana plays No. 8 Oregon on the second day of the tournament with the winner facing No. 1 Michigan in the next round.

What Is The Minimum Standard For Indiana To Make The Big Ten Tournament?

In all scenarios where Indiana only wins one more Big Ten game, it makes it into the Big Ten Tournament as the final No. 15 seed. The Hoosiers would have a 6-14 record, the same predicted record as Iowa and Minnesota as they would tie for 14th place – with a 1-1 round robin record between them.

Indiana would get the tiebreaker in this case over the Hawkeyes based on a better record against a higher-placing Big Ten team. In this case, the Hoosiers would play No. 11 Nebraska.

However, that’s not a recommended path forward for the Hoosiers. That is based on Torvik’s predicted scores. There’s several scenarios where a different tiebreaker could occur that isn’t favorable to the Hoosiers. Winning just one game is likely not going to be enough.

Indiana would be in a far safer position if it won two more Big Ten contests.

What Is The Minimum Standard To Get A Bye To Day Two Of The Big Ten Tournament?

Far too many balls in the air to determine this, but the scenario presented above, in which Indiana wins its remaining home games, is as good a scenario as any for the Hoosiers to get a free pass to the second day of the Big Ten Tournament. At least nine conference wins are needed, which would mean Indiana would have to finish 9-11 and hope for friendly tiebreakers.

A 10-10 record, which would mean the Hoosiers would have to win five of its remaining seven games, would be a lot safer record to guarantee a day two spot.

Related to Indiana basketball ...

• GAME STORY: Indiana fights back, but can't overcome Michigan in a 70-67 defeat. CLICK HERE.

• WHAT WOODSON SAID: What Mike Woodson said in his postgame press conference. CLICK HERE.

• WATCH REACTIONS TO MAY, WOODSON: Assembly Hall reacts to both coaches during introductions on Saturday. CLICK HERE.

• LIVE BLOG: Follow the game as it happened. CLICK HERE.