Indiana at Purdue Prediction: ESPN’s Analytics Make Call for Rivalry Showdown

Indiana looks to make it a season sweep of rival Purdue on Friday. What kind of chances do the computer models give the Hoosiers?

Jan 27, 2026; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Darian DeVries claps his hands against the Purdue Boilermakers during the first half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Indiana's lone ranked win this season came back on January 27 when it bested then-No. 12 Purdue, 72-67 in the friendly confines of Assembly Hall.

The return trip to Purdue and the always challenging Mackey Arena comes Friday night as the Hoosiers have a tall order ahead of them.

Indiana is fresh off a 71-51 loss at Illinois in which it was dominated as badly as the final score indicates.

Meanwhile, Purdue is up to a No. 7 national ranking as it hasn't lost, winning four-straight since that January 27 matchup.

Most recently, the Boilermakers won easily at Iowa, 78-57, against a Hawkeyes team that has played over .500 basketball in Big Ten play this season.

Indiana vs. Purdue: A Quick History

Indiana Hoosiers center Oumar Ballo (11) reacts after an Indiana Hoosiers turnover Friday, Jan. 31, 2025, during the NCAA men’s basketball game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind. Purdue Boilermakers won 81-76. | Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana has gone just 26-82 all-time at Purdue, and although it feels like the Boilermakers have dominated the Hoosiers of late, the two have actually split the last 10 games in the series, with each team taking five.

The Hoosiers have dropped their last two at Mackey Arena, but did win in February of 2023 in West Lafayette, 79-71. Previous to that though, it had been since 2013 that Indiana walked out of Mackey with a win.

All-time, Purdue leads the head-to-head series with Indiana, 128-94. That dates all the way back to Purdue's thrilling 20-15 victory over the Hoosiers on March 1, 1901.

Indiana's most lopsided victory ever over Purdue came on January 28, 1992, when Calbert Cheaney and Damon Bailey combined for 38 points in a 106-65 beatdown of the Boilermakers.

ESPN BPI Projects Indiana at Purdue for February 20, 2026:

Indiana had a rough showing Sunday at Illinois and the computer models don't like its chances Friday night at Purdue. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Indiana just an 18.3% chance of pulling the upset and completing the regular season sweep of the Boilermakers.

ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) currently ranks Purdue as the ninth-best team in the nation while Indiana checks in down the list at No. 27.

Indiana at Purdue: TV Information

I know you didn't ask but I'll just say quickly that I hate the Big Ten trying to make Friday nights such a thing in football and basketball. Fridays are made for high school sports and Indiana and Purdue battling on a Friday is a disservice to the entire State of Indiana.

That said, you can catch the Hoosiers and Boilermakers:

Date: Friday, February 20, 2026

Tip-off Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Location: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, Indiana

TV: Fox