Indiana vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Sunday, Feb. 15

The No. 8 Illinois Fighting Illini have dropped two games in a row, and they’re looking to get back on track with a win on Sunday afternoon against the Indiana Hoosiers.

Illinois has suffered back-to-back close losses – by three to Michigan State and by two to Wisconsin – dropping it to 11-3 in Big Ten play. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are unranked at this point in the season and are just 8-6 in Big Ten play.

However, Indiana knocked off Wisconsin (by one point) just two games ago, showing that it can compete with some of the top teams in the conference. The Hoosiers enter this game as 10.5-point road underdogs, but they did win their last game against a ranked team (Purdue) and have won five of their last six.

Can the Hoosiers hang around on Sunday afternoon?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a key player to watch and my prediction for this Big Ten clash.

Indiana vs. Illinois Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Indiana +10.5 (-110)
Illinois -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Indiana: +470
Illinois: -650

Total

151.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Indiana vs. Illinois How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Feb. 15
Time: 1:00 p.m. ESt
Venue: State Farm Center
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Indiana record: 17-8
Illinois record: 20-5

Indiana vs. Illinois Key Player to Watch

Keaton Wagler, Guard, Illinois

A projected lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, Wagler has put together an impressive freshman season for the Fighting Illini.

He’s averaging 18.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while shooting 46.4 percent from the field and 43.7 percent from 3. His 3-point percentage actually dips three percent (to 40.7 percent) at home this season.

Even though Illinois is coming off back-to-back losses, Wagler nearly willed the team to a win over Wisconsin, scoring 34 points to go with seven assists while shooting over 50 percent from the field and exactly 50 percent from deep. The freshman is a star on the offensive end, and he’ll be a tough guard for this Indiana team on Sunday.

Indiana vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

Indiana is a top-50 team in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency (31st) and defensive efficiency (48th). So, it may be a little better than its record suggests, and a recent six-game stretch (5-1) has shown that the Hoosiers can compete in the Big Ten.

While Illinois has been great offensively this season (No. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency), the Hoosiers are actually the better shooting team. Indiana is 27th in the country in effective field goal percentage while the Fighting Illini are 32nd. That’s not a major difference, but it does show these teams are a little closer than the spread suggests.

Indiana has covered in half of its road games this season, and I think it can hang around with Illinois since neither of these teams push the pace. Both rank outside the top-200 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, so if Indiana can score in the half court with its impressive shooting (35.1 percent from 3 this season), it should be able to keep this game relatively close.

It’s also worth noting that out of Indiana’s six Big 10 losses, only three came by double digits, with two of them coming against top-15 teams in Michigan State and Michigan.

With Illinois slumping as of late, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Hoosiers cover on Sunday.

Pick: Indiana +10.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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