Indiana Basketball's 3 Most Important Games Remaining

Most coaches say the most important game is the next one, and they're not necessarily wrong.

It's the mentality they want their players to have in order to avoid letdowns and not look too far ahead during a 20-game Big Ten schedule that comes with ups and downs for every team.

But for fans and media, there's no harm in breaking down the schedule and projecting what could happen, especially for an NCAA Tournament bubble team like Indiana at 15-8 overall and tied for 10th in the Big Ten standings.

So with eight games to play, there are the three most important games for the Hoosiers, if they want to go dancing for the first time since 2022-23.

Feb. 7 vs. Wisconsin

Nick Boyd Wisconsin Badgers — Wisconsin Badgers guard Nick Boyd (2) dribbles against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Rec Hall. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Coincidentally, this is the next game up for Indiana, and it comes Saturday at noon ET at Assembly Hall. At No. 43, Wisconsin is behind Hoosiers at No. 33 in the NET rankings, so it'd only be a Quad 2 win. But that's still valuable, and Indiana really needs to take care of business at home the rest of the way, given its daunting road schedule.

Wisconsin has won seven of its last eight games to improve to 16-6 overall and 8-3 in Big Ten play. The Badgers have perhaps the best win of anyone in the nation this season, defeating No. 2 Michigan 91-88 in Ann Arbor on Jan. 10. But they also lost at home to USC and got throttled by Purdue (89-73), Nebraska (90-60) and BYU (98-70), and suffered double-digit losses to TCU and Villanova.

In coach Greg Gard's 11th season, they'll come to Assembly Hall with a full week of rest after a 10-point home win over Ohio State. The Badgers have lost their last two games in Bloomington, but have a 12-4 advantage in the last decade.

This year, they're led in scoring by a pair of dynamic guards in Nick Boyd (20.0 ppg) and John Blackwell (18.5 ppg). It's a big bubble game, too, as Wisconsin is currently a No. 9 seed in Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology, which has Indiana as a No. 10 seed. Depending how things play out, a head-to-head result could determine whether one team goes to the tournament.

March 1 vs. Michigan State

Jeremy Fears Michigan State Basketball — Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (1) dribbles against Michigan during the first half at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan State has lost back-to-back games for the first time this season, falling ot 19-4 overall and fourth place in the Big Ten standings at 9-3. They have a tough road to Bloomington, too, with matchups against No. 5 Illinois, at Wisconsin, UCLA, Ohio State and at No. 12 Purdue leading up to the 3:45 p.m. ET tipoff at Assembly Hall.

Despite having more overall success, the Spartans have struggled at Assembly Hall in recent seasons, losing four of the last five matchups. So if Michigan State comes into this game on a cold streak, and Indiana is desperate for a big win to add to its NCAA Tournament resume, this feels like a closer matchup than it may appear on paper.

Michigan State will be a tough opponent because of its physical defense, veteran point guard in Jeremy Fears Jr. and strong front court with seniors Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler. But the Spartans are only 46th in adjusted offensive efficiency, which ranks eighth among Big Ten teams. Still, it'd be a Quad 1 win for Indiana, as Michigan State is No. 13 in the NET rankings.

March 7 at Ohio State

Bruce Thornton Ohio State Basketball — Ohio State Buckeyes guard Bruce Thornton (2) dribbles against the Washington Huskies at Alaska Airlines Arena at Hec Edmundson Pavilion. | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

This is certainly Indiana's most winnable road game left, with Illinois and Purdue as the others. It'd also be a Quad 1 win for the Hoosiers, as Ohio State is No. 41 in the NET.

That's not to say it'd be easy, though. Ohio State is 10-2 at home, with the only losses coming against two of the Big Ten's best in Illinois and Nebraska by 11 combined points.

Senior Bruce Thornton is one of the best guards in the Big Ten, and he and John Mobley Jr. both shoot over 40% from 3-point range. A deep front court of Devin Royal, Christoph Tilly and Amare Bynum could pose problems for a somewhat undersized Indiana team as well.

This game is especially important because Ohio State a bubble team that could be fighting against Indiana for the last few spots in the NCAA Tournament. Lunardi had Indiana as one of the last four in and Ohio State as one of the first four out in his latest projection. Fair or not, recency bias and a head-to-head matchup could determine who gets in, making this game slightly more important than the trip to Purdue.

Which games were left off?

Feb. 9 vs. Oregon
Feb. 15 at Illinois
Feb. 20 at Purdue
Feb. 24 vs. Northwestern
March 4 vs. Minnesota

I left these five games off the "most important" list, mostly because they're the five games that do not feature another bubble team and will either be among the easiest or most difficult games left. The three I chose as most important –– Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State –– are the biggest toss-ups, while still being valuable from a resume perspective.

For starters, home games against Oregon (8-14, 1-10), Northwestern (10-13, 2-10) and Minnesota (11-12, 4-8) should be three games Indiana can feel most confident in winning the rest of the way. Obviously, if the Hoosiers drop one or more of these games –– Minnesota is a Quad 2 game, while Oregon and Northwestern are Quad 3 –– they can probably say goodbye to the NCAA Tournament, unless they were to pull off a major upset.

The Illinois and Purdue road games could be considered the most important from the perspective that they'd be Indiana's two best wins of the seasons. But they're also the two most difficult and most likely losses remaining, so they didn't make the cut. Sure, Indiana beat Purdue in the first matchup, but going into Mackey Arena is a different beast, and Indiana has been worse on the road this season by several measures.

Make no mistake, an in-state rivalry game like this is always important, but in the context of Indiana's season, it can likely afford this loss if it wins the three "most important" games listed above. Where as a trip to Ohio State gets the nod over Purdue because of bubble implications. Plus, Illinois looks like an absolute juggernaut right now, and is a bad matchup for the Hoosiers, so entertaining at upset in Champaign is probably unreasonable.

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