Indiana Basketball NCAA Tournament Bracketology Update After Latest Loss

Indiana's largest margin of defeat in a two-game stretch this season came this past week, with a 71-51 loss at No. 8 Illinois and a 93-64 loss at No. 7 Purdue.

The Hoosiers were on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble prior to these games, and now they seem to be hanging on by a thread in coach Darian DeVries first season. But given that Illinois and Purdue are Final Four contenders, how much did these losses really hurt Indiana?

Here's a look at updated NCAA Tournament projections for Indiana, which fell to 17-10 overall and 8-8 in Big Ten play.

Bracketology projections

Lamar Wilkerson Indiana Basketball — Indiana Hoosiers guard Lamar Wilkerson (3) shoots against Purdue at Mackey Arena. | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Going into Friday's game at Purdue, ESPN's Joe Lunardi gave Indiana a No. 9 seed. At least eight teams were below the Hoosiers, who were not listed on the bubble as one of the last four byes or last four in.

Lunardi later wrote that losses to Illinois and Purdue "shaved about 10% off the Hoosiers' conditional at-large probability, which still sits at 73% but is no longer making them look anywhere near as solid as before."

As of Monday afternoon, Lunardi hadn't updated his full 68-team tournament field, but he refreshed his top four seeds and the bubble. Indiana fell to one of the "last four byes," meaning they'd avoid the First Four round in Dayton but certainly aren't safe for an at-large bid.

CBS Sports was more harsh toward the Hoosiers following a pair of blowout losses. Their updated Bracketology on Monday morning has Indiana as one of the "first four out."

NET rankings update

Tucker DeVries Indiana Basketball — Indiana Hoosiers forward Tucker Devries (12) drives against Purdue at Mackey Arena. | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

If there's a silver lining to these projections, it'd be that Indiana (36) has the best NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking among the eight bubble teams listed by CBS Sports.

The Hoosiers are still higher than the "last four in," which consists of Santa Clara (40), New Mexico (43), TCU (47) and Cal (59), as well as the other "first four out" teams, such as VCU (45), Ohio State (37) and USC (58) from a NET ranking standpoint.

Losing by 29 points at Purdue was ugly, but it didn't hurt the Hoosiers as much as one may think. Following the loss, Indiana's NET ranking remained at 36. So it was more of a missed opportunity than a detrimental loss.

What's hurting Indiana is having just two Quad 1 wins. Villanova (30 NET) and Saint Louis (22 NET) are the only other teams in the top 36 of the NET with two Quad 1 wins, while St. Mary's (25 NET) is the only team with just one Quad 1 win. The entire top 21 has at least five.

On the flip side, all 10 of the Hoosiers losses fall into the Quad 1 category, too, meaning they don't necessarily have any "bad losses." For context, the eight teams ahead of Indiana each have at least one Quad 2 or 3 loss. Indiana, North Carolina, Arkansas and Texas Tech are the only teams between No. 14 and No. 36 in the NET with zero Quad 2, 3 or 4 losses.

Here's a look at where Indiana stands in other key NCAA Tournament metrics.

NET: 36
KenPom: 41
Torvik: 30
Wins Above Bubble (WAB): +1.1 (45th)
Basketball Power Index (BPI): 31
KPI: 51
Strength of record: 42
Quad 1 record: 2-10
Quad 2 record: 2-0
Quad 3 record: 6-0
Quad 4 record: 7-0

What Indiana needs to do to make March Madness

Conor Enright Indiana Basketball — Indiana's Conor Enright (5) and Tucker DeVries (12) celebrate against Wisconsin at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana has four regular season games remaining, followed by the Big Ten Tournament.

vs. Northwestern, Feb. 24 – Quad 3
vs. No. 10 Michigan State, March 1 – Quad 1
vs. Minnesota, March 4 – Quad 2
at Ohio State, March 7 – Quad 1

To feel safe on Selection Sunday, the Hoosiers would likely have to go 3-1 with a loss to either Michigan State or Ohio State. Beating Ohio State might be preferable because the Buckeyes are also a bubble team, but Michigan State would be a better win at No. 12 in the NET, compared to Ohio State at No. 37. Both games will be Quad 1 opportunities, though.

If current rankings hold, Indiana would receive the No. 10 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and play Wednesday against the No. 15 or No. 18 seed.

In that scenario, a win would not help Indiana's resume in a major way, but a loss could be enough to knock the Hoosiers out. Their second game would likely come against Ohio State, UCLA, Iowa or Wisconsin. A win would certainly punch their ticket to the big dance, and they may be able to hang onto a bid with a loss.

A 2-2 regular season finish is when the Big Ten Tournament becomes crucial and Selection Sunday gets even more nerve-wracking. In that case, Indiana would almost certainly need two Big Ten Tournament wins to reach the NCAA Tournament. But unless the rest of the bubble falls apart, too, that might not even be enough.

A small but potentially important detail to monitor is where Minnesota (73), Northwestern (79) and Wisconsin (32) finish in the NET rankings. Indiana is currently 2-10 in Quad 1 games and 15-0 across Quads 2, 3 and 4 combined, but those opponents are right on the border, which could affect Indiana's resume.

Here's how the quadrants are defined.

Quad 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quad 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quad 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135, 240
Quad 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Keep in mind that Indiana made the First Four of the NCAA Tournament under Mike Woodson with a 9-11 conference record in 2021-22, followed by two Big Ten Tournament wins. But the Hoosiers were one of the first four out of the 2025 NCAA Tournament after going 10-10 in conference play and losing their first conference tournament game.

So at 8-8 with four conference games to play, the difference between Indiana making or missing the NCAA Tournament in DeVries' first season could come down to one game.