Indiana's NCAA Tournament Projections With Selection Sunday A Month Away

We're officially less than one month away from Selection Sunday on March 15, when the NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed.

Indiana (17-9, 8-7) is more likely than not to reach the big dance in its first season under coach Darian DeVries, but it still has work to do. Sunday's 71-51 loss at No. 8 Illinois didn't change much about Indiana's tournament outlook, but five important conference games and the Big Ten Tournament remain.

Here's a closer look at Indiana's resume, remaining schedule and NCAA Tournament Bracketology projections. We also played out the best and worst case scenarios, the most likely outcome, and projected where the Hoosiers would land in those situations.

Indiana in key NCAA Tournament metrics

NET: 34
KenPom: 36
Torvik: 24
Wins Above Bubble (WAB): +1.3 (40th)
Basketball Power Index (BPI): 27
KPI: 48
Strength of record: 38
Quad 1 record: 2-8
Quad 2 record: 2-1
Quad 3 record: 6-0
Quad 4 record: 7-0

Remaining schedule

at No. 13 Purdue, Feb. 20 – Quad 1
vs. Northwestern, Feb. 24 – Quad 3
vs. No. 10 Michigan State, March 1 – Quad 1
vs. Minnesota, March 4 – Quad 3
at Ohio State, March 7 – Quad 1
Big Ten Tournament (currently No. 10 seed)

Bracketology

Darian DeVries Indiana Basketball — Indiana coach Darian DeVries against Purdue at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana is a No. 9 seed in CBS Sports' NCAA Tournament Bracketology, updated Monday morning. CBS doesn't show a full seed list, but that means at least 10 teams –– and as many as 13 –– are ranked behind the Hoosiers but still in the NCAA Tournament.

That'd set up a Round of 64 matchup against No. 8 seed NC State, with No. 1 seed Duke waiting in the Round of 32.

The Hoosiers are also included in all 112 NCAA Tournament projections on BracketMatrix.com, with an average seed of 9.54. Though Bracket Matrix hasn't been updated since Feb. 13, losing Sunday at No. 8 Illinois is not a "bad loss" that would greatly affect Indiana's resume and tournament hopes.

Best case scenario

Let's take the optimistic view for a minute. In this case, Indiana would go on a 4-1 run to wrap up the regular season, with a loss to either Purdue or Michigan State, for example.

That's still somewhat realistic, as Indiana should handle Minnesota and Northwestern at home. Going 2-1 against Purdue, Michigan State and Ohio State will be tough, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. Indiana gets the Michigan State at home, already beat Purdue earlier this season and is four spots higher than Ohio State in the NET Rankings.

In this scenario, let's assume Indiana gets to the quarterfinals of Big Ten Tournament, either by winning two games or by receiving a bye to the third round. The Hoosiers have proven they can beat fellow middle-of-the-pack conference teams –– and those below them –– but their run stops in the quarterfinals against a top-tier Big Ten team like Purdue, Nebraska, Illinois or Michigan.

Lamar Wilkerson Indiana Basketball — Indiana's Lamar Wilkerson (3) smiles at coach Darian DeVries against Oregon at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Monday, Feb. 9, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

That'd give the Hoosiers 22 or 23 wins overall and a 12-8 record in the Big Ten. It'd be a nice accomplishment in year one of the Darian DeVries era, compared to recent history.

Since winning its last Big Ten title in 2016, Indiana has gone over .500 in conference play just once, a 12-8 record under Mike Woodson in 2022-23. Woodson's Hoosiers won 23 games that year, the program's most since a 27-win season in 2015-16.

This outcome would likely put Indiana somewhere between the No. 7 and No. 10 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. They probably can't catch Michigan State and Wisconsin –– currently 10-4 in conference play –– but Ohio State, Iowa and UCLA are within reach.

That may be enough for Indiana to jump all the way to a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which is likely its ceiling. Right now, CBS has Miami (FL), Iowa, Clemson and NC State as the No. 8 seeds, each of whom are ranked between No. 27 and No. 35 in the NET, compared to the Hoosiers at No. 34. That's higher than fellow projected No. 9 seeds in Texas and SMU, but a touch lower than Auburn.

Worst case scenario

Indiana's 5-2 record since Jan. 23 has done a lot to bolster its NCAA Tournament chances, but the Hoosiers aren't a lock for the big dance just yet. Let's imagine the doomsday scenario for a second.

Indiana loses at Purdue, at Ohio State and at home against Michigan State, but the killer is a second loss of the season to Minnesota. The collapse continues with a loss in its first Big Ten Tournament game.

Unlikely? Maybe. But certainly not impossible. A 1-5 stretch leading up to the NCAA Tournament would put the Hoosiers at 18-14 overall and 9-11 in regular season Big Ten play.

Tucker DeVries Indiana basketball — Indiana's Tucker DeVries (12) looks to score against Oregon at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Monday, Feb. 9, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For context, a 15-loss Texas team and a 13-loss North Carolina team made the First Four round of the NCAA Tournament last year. They were ranked No. 40 and No. 36, respectively, in the NET on Selection Sunday.

Given that Indiana fell from No. 31 to No. 34 after its 20-point loss at Illinois, a 1-5 finish may drop the Hoosiers to the mid-to-high 40s in the NET. A lot would depend on what other bubble teams do, but this feels like enough for Indiana to fall out of the tournament field.

Where we think Indiana will be seeded

Reality likely lies somewhere in the middle with a 3-2 regular season finish. Let's say the Hoosiers beat Northwestern, Minnesota and Ohio State, and fall to Purdue and Michigan State.

The middle of the Big Ten standings is very close together, but let's assume Indiana gets the No. 9 seed in the conference tournament. The Hoosiers win their Wednesday game, then fall to a team like Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin or Michigan State on Thursday.

Here's how the Big Ten Tournament field would look if the season ended Sunday.

Updated Big Ten Tournament brackets pic.twitter.com/ujIzHcA1xE
— ᗩᑎT ᗯᖇIGᕼT (@itsAntWright) February 15, 2026

In this scenario, Indiana would finish 21-12 overall, 11-9 in regular season conference play and a 1-1 run in the Big Ten Tournament.

This would be enough for an NCAA Tournament bid. All three losses would be Quad 1, so there's nothing necessarily hurting the Hoosiers' resume and causing them to drop from their current position.

Winning at Ohio State would also be a Quad 1 victory, and beating a bubble team like the Buckeyes in the regular season finale would be an important one to keep the Hoosiers in the field. But that'd likely be Indiana's last Quad 1 win the rest of the season, limiting how much it can climb.

And how about this for a potential Round of 64 matchup? The Hoosiers earn a No. 10 seed and meet No. 7 seed Miami (FL) in a rematch of the college football national championship. At 20-5, Miami is currently projected as a No. 8 seed, but has a relatively favorable schedule the rest of the way.

It'd also be a matchup against former Indiana forward Malik Reneau, and a shot at revenge against the team knocked the Hoosiers out of their most recent NCAA Tournament appearance in 2023.

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