College Basketball National Championship Odds: Michigan Remains Favorite Despite Loss to Duke

March Madness is approaching, two teams that could be No. 1 seeds in this year’s tournament faced off on Saturday afternoon.

The No. 1 Michigan Wolverines won’t be No. 1 for long, as they fell to the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils and Wooden Award favorite Cameron Boozer on Saturday.

Despite that, the Wolverines remain the favorite in the betting odds to win the National Championship, as the top-three teams in the market – Michigan, Duke and Arizona – all only have two losses in the 2025-26 season.

Here’s a look at how the National Championship odds look heading into the final week of February.

Odds to Win 2026 NCAA Tournament

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Michigan: +370
Duke: +450
Arizona: +500
Houston: +800
Florida: +1000
Illinois: +1100
Iowa State: +1300
Connecticut: +1800
Purdue: +2500
Kansas: +3000
Arkansas: +4000
Gonzaga: +4000
Tennessee: +5000
Michigan State: +5000
St. John's: +5000
Alabama: +5000
Louisville: +6000
Nebraska: +6000
Vanderbilt: +8000
BYU: +8000
Virginia: +8000
Kentucky: +10000
Wisconsin: +10000
North Carolina: +10000
Saint Louis: +10000
Texas Tech: +12500
NC State: +12500
Texas A&M: +12500
Iowa: +15000

No other team has shorter than +20000 odds to win the national title.

Michigan Still Favored to Win National Championship

The Wolverines may have lost to Duke, but oddsmakers still think they’re the best team in the country, setting them at +370 to win the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan is also the No. 1 team in KenPom’s latest rankings, sitting just ahead of the Blue Devils in net rating. The Wolverines are No. 5 in offense and No. 1 in defense this season, per KenPom, and they’d held Duke to just 68 points in Saturday’s loss.

While Michigan now has the same number of losses as Duke and Arizona, it has only lost those games (to Duke and Wisconsin) by eight points. So, the Wolverines are in every game and winning in blowout fashion most of the time. They should be a No. 1 seed – barring a late-season collapse – in the NCAA Tournament.

Duke Undervalued in National Championship Odds?

Duke has arguably the best player in the country in Boozer, and yet oddsmakers aren’t sold on the Blue Devils as the favorite to win the national title.

Duke ranks No. 2 in KenPom, posting the No. 7 adjusted offensive efficiency and the No. 3 adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Similar to Michigan, Duke doesn’t have a bad loss this season.

It lost by one to Texas Tech earlier in the campaign and three to the North Carolina Tar Heels on a game-winning shot by Seth Trimble. Duke is the clear favorite in the ACC, and it may have an easier path to a conference title than the Wolverines given how tough the Big Ten is this season.

Injuries Impact Multiple Teams Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

Two massive injuries have impacted top-25 teams in recent weeks, and it’s changed the odds to win the national title:

UNC (+10000): North Carolina looked like a true title contender a few weeks ago, upsetting Duke with Caleb Wilson outdueling Cam Boozer. Now, Wilson is out of the lineup with a fractured hand, and the Tar Heels have lost two of their last four games as a result. There’s a chance Wilson returns this season, but UNC’s stock (and NCAA Tournament seed) may fall too much for it to be a viable national title contender.

Texas Tech (+12500): One of two teams to beat Duke this season, the Red Raiders are really tough to take as a national title contender after reigning Big 12 Player of the Year J.T. Toppin suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Texas Tech is 20-7 this season, but it’s going to have a tough time in a loaded Big 12 now that Toppin’s season is over.

UConn, Florida, Kansas Lurking as Title Contenders

There are few teams lurking in the conversation for title contention that are 10/1 or higher to win the national title this season.

UConn (+1800)

Dan Hurley’s UConn Huskies are the favorite in the Big East, and they picked up a big bounce-back win over Villanova on Saturday. Hurley has won two national championships in the last three seasons, and the Huskies are built for March with a lot of veteran talent around star freshman Braylon Mullins. The Huskies are currently 11th in KenPom’s latest rankings.

Florida (+1000)

The defending national champions have won seven games in a row and are in first in the SEC heading down the home stretch of the regular season. Led by Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Boogie Fland, this Florida team has a lot of firepower that could bring it right back to the national title game in the 2025-26 season.

Florida is currently the No. 5 team in KenPom, posting the fourth-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country.

Kansas (+3000)

A little more of a long shot, Kansas has proven it can win without its best player – Darryn Peterson – knocking off Arizona earlier this season. The Jayhawks are the No. 19 team in KenPom, but they may have unrecognized potential if Peterson can actually play heavy minutes in the NCAA Tournament.

A projected top-five pick, Peterson has drawn the ire of a lot of people around college basketball for sitting out games and subbing himself out at times. Still, he’s the most talented player in the country, which gives the Jayhawks an interesting ceiling in the Big 12 Tournament and beyond.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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