Indiana's NCAA Tournament Chances Climb After Wisconsin Win

It wasn't easy, but Indiana gutted out a 78-77 overtime victory Saturday against Wisconsin.

Indiana let an eight-point lead with six minutes to play slip away, and Wisconsin looked ready to pick up a road victory as it led by four points with 58 seconds remaining. But Indiana guard Lamar Wilkerson knocked down four clutch free throws in the final seconds of regulation, and then scored all six of the Hoosiers' points in overtime to emerge victorious.

It's a win that could work wonders for the Hoosiers' NCAA Tournament hopes, as they improved to 16-8 overall and moved into 10th place in the Big Ten standings at 7-6.

Indiana's NCAA Tournament odds

Lamar Wilkerson Indiana Basketball — Indiana Hoosiers guard Lamar Wilkerson (3) celebrates after defeating the Wisconsin Badgers at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Indiana has a 96.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as of Sunday morning, according to TeamRankings.com. It's most likely that the Hoosiers receive a No. 11 seed at 25.2%, followed by No. 10 at 23.9%, No. 9 at 17.7%, No. 12 at 12.9% and No. 8 at 9.8%.

From a win total standpoint, there are a few benchmarks that tip the scales for Indiana's tournament chances. If Indiana finishes with just 17 wins, it only has a 1.2% chance to make the big dance. But those odds increase to 58.2% with 18 wins and 91.7% with 19 wins, according to TeamRankings.com.

That suggests the Hoosiers would be in good shape with a 3-4 record to close out the regular season, which includes four more home games.

Bracketology update

Tucker DeVries Indiana Basketball — Indiana's Tucker DeVries (12) celebrates after defeating Wisconsin at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

CBS Sports updated its NCAA Tournament projections Sunday morning, and said Indiana "climbed comfortably into the field" after defeating Wisconsin.

Their tournament field features Indiana as a No. 9 seed in the West region, setting up a Round of 64 matchup with No. 8 seed Villanova, with No. 1 overall seed Arizona likely waiting in the Round of 32.

The last five games have been especially meaningful for the Hoosiers, as they've gone 4-1 with wins over Rutgers, Purdue, UCLA and Wisconsin, plus a close loss at USC.

Indiana was on the bubble as one of the last four byes in Joe Lunardi's NCAA Tournament projection on Jan. 31, but recent wins have moved the Hoosiers off the bubble entirely for now. Even prior to the Wisconsin win, Lunardi's Feb. 6 update had the Hoosiers as a No. 9 seed and off the bubble.

Indiana in the NET rankings, KenPom

Conor Enright Indiana Basketball — Indiana's Conor Enright (5) drives against Nebraska at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

One of the strongest aspects of Indiana's resume is its No. 33 ranking in the NET. The Hoosiers didn't move up or down in the NET after their Quad 2 victory over Wisconsin, which is okay because they're already in a good position from this standpoint.

Their NET ranking is notably higher than several teams listed on the bubble by CBS Sports, including USC (48), Missouri (63), Oklahoma State (66), Ohio State (37), Cal (59), San Diego State (43) and New Mexico (45).

The only bubble team with a higher NET ranking than Indiana is St. Mary's at No. 29, though the Gaels are 0-3 in Quad 1 games. On the other hand, the Hoosiers have two Quad 1 wins over UCLA and Purdue, and they're 59 spots higher than St. Mary's in KenPom's strength of schedule.

At No. 33, Indiana is seventh among Big Ten teams in the NET, trailing No. 18 Iowa, No. 12 Michigan State, No. 11 Nebraska, No. 10 Purdue, No. 4 Illinois and No. 2 Michigan. Ohio State is next among Big Ten teams behind Indiana at No. 37.

Lunardi projects the Big Ten to send 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament –– most of any conference –– which is a good sign for the Hoosiers, given their NET ranking compared to the rest of the conference.

What's next for the Hoosiers?

Sam Alexis Indiana Basketball — Indiana Hoosiers forwards Tucker DeVries (12) and Sam Alexis (4) celebrate against Wisconsin at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Indiana stays at home to face Oregon at 8:30 p.m. ET Monday on FS1.

A Quad 3 win over the 8-15 Ducks won't necessarily help the Hoosiers' resume, but it'd be a detrimental loss they'd really like to avoid. Indiana doesn't have any bad losses on its resume, as all eight losses fall into the Quad 1 category. Keeping it that way will further solidify their tournament hopes.

That game is followed by two challenging road trips against No. 5 Illinois and No. 12 Purdue, both of which are Quad 1 opportunities and would represent Indiana's best wins of the season. As long as Indiana keeps it close, losing both games won't hurt its resume. Winning could essentially punch their ticket to the big dance.

The Hoosiers then wrap up with three home games against Northwestern, Michigan State and Minnesota before concluding the regular season at Ohio State. Michigan State and Ohio State are Quad 1 games, while Northwestern and Minnesota are Quad 3 and 2, respectively.

Indiana has put itself in a good position to make the NCAA Tournament in coach Darian DeVries' first season and for the first time since 2023. The Hoosiers aren't necessarily desperate for huge wins anymore, but they still must take care of business against inferior opponents to ensure a bid.

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