Opening Line: Despite Injuries, Indiana Still Big Favorite over Kennesaw State on Friday
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Winter has roared into Bloomington like a lion on Friday, and it will be interesting to see what that does to attendance tonight when Indiana takes on Kennesaw State at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.
It might also have an impact on the noise level in the final nonconference game of the year. Indiana is a 19.5-point favorite over Kennesaw State, and the over/under is 141.5, and at first glance, that number seems kind of low.
*** UPDATE *** At 6 p;m. ET, one hour before tipoff, the line is down to 17.5 points, with Trayce Jackson-Davis not suiting up.
But don't be deceived. Dig deep, and there are good reasons why this is the only number under 24.5 for Indiana's seven ''cupcake'' games. Kennesaw is 5-1 vs. the spread in true road games.
As we discussed Thursday in breaking down Indiana's nonconference schedule, Kennesaw is the highest-ranked team outside of the Big Four — Kansas, Arizona, North Carolina and Xavier — on Indiana's schedule this year. They are No. 213 in the Kenpom.com rankings out of 363 teams. The other six were all 283 or worse.
There are also injury concerns with Indiana. Senior point guard Xavier Johnson is out for a while after having foot surgery, and star Trayce Jackson-Davis didn't play Tuesday for precautionary reasons. He had a back injury earlier in the season. that forced him to miss a game as well. Junior guard Jordan Geronimo missed Tuesday's game too, out with a finger injury.
Kennesaw has been competitive in losses at Florida and VCU, and has road wins at Mercer and Charleston Southern. But a more apt comparison to what the Owls might expect in Bloomington is their Dec. 11 loss at San Diego State.
The Aztecs, who were ranked in five of the first seven Associated Press top-25 polls, beat them by 32 points.
That's a tempting lean toward the Hoosiers, but a quiet Assembly Hall and a depleted Indiana roster makes that a bit of a tentative step. (Editor's note: We will update this story later as we get closer to the game.)
And let's also remember that there are no guarantees in college basketball. Just ask the Iowa Hawkeyes, who lost at home to Eastern Illinois on Wednesday as a 31.5-point favorite, the worst loss by spread in the modern era dating back more than 30 years of gambling numbers.
Here's what Indiana has done so far this season vs. the numbers:
Indiana by the numbers
- Indiana overall record: 9-3
- Indiana overall vs. spread: 7-5
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- Indiana home record: 7-0
- Indiana home vs. spread: 5-2
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- Indiana road record: 1-2
- Indiana road vs spread: 1-2
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- Indiana neutral court record: 1-1
- Indiana neutral court vs. spread: 1-1
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- Indiana record as favorite: 9-1
- Indiana vs. spread as favorite: 7-3
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- Indiana record as underdog: 0-2
- Indiana vs. spread as underdog: 0-2
Indiana vs. the spread
Here's what Indiana has done this season, straight up and against the spread::
- Nov. 7 — Beat Morehead State 88-53 as a 24.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 10 — Beat Bethune-Cookman 101-49 as a 32.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 18 — Won at Xavier 81-79 as a 1.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 20 — Beat Miami of Ohio 86-56 as a 27.5-point favorite in Indianapolis (won)
- Nov. 23 — Beat Little Rock 86-67 as a 29..5-point favorite (lost)
- Nov. 25 — Beat Jackson State 90-51 as a 28.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 30 — Beat No. 18 North Carolina 77-65 as a 4.5-point favorite (won)
- Dec. 3 — Lost at Rutgers 63-48 as a 3-point favorite (lost)
- Dec. 7 — Beat Nebraska 81-55 as a 12.5-point favorite (won)
- Dec. 10 — Lost to No. 10 Arizona 89-75 in Las Vegas as a 1.5-point underdog (lost)
- Dec. 17 — Lost at No. 8 Kansas 84-62 as a 5.5-point underdog (lost)
- Dec. 20 — Beat Elon 96-72 as a 28.5-point favorite (lost)
Kennesaw State vs. the spread
Kennesaw State is 8-4 and the Owls are 3-3 in true road games. They are 6-3 vs. the spread all season, and a very impressive 5-1 vs. the spread in those road games. Three of those home wins are cupcake wins over non-Division I teams. Here's what Kennesaw State has done this season, straight up and against the spread when lines were available
- Nov. 7 — Beat LaGrange College 99-56 at home. (No line)
- Nov. 11 —Lost at Florida 88-78 as a 21.5-point underdog (won)
- Nov. 14 — Beat Brewton-Parker College 95-36 at home (No line)
- Nov. 18 — Beat SE Louisiana 72-68 in Boone, N.C. as an 8.5-point favorite (lost)
- Nov. 19 — Won at Appalachian State 71-67 as a 2.5-point underdog (won)
- Nov. 20 — Lost to Campbell 85-61 in Boone, N.C. as a 1.5-point favorite (lost)
- Nov. 26 — Lost at VCU 64-61 as a 12.5-point underdog (won)
- Dec. 2— Won at Mercer 66-63 as a 3.5-point underdog (won)
- Dec. 5 — Won at Charleston Southern 76-65 as a 5.5-point favorite (won)
- Dec. 11 — Lost at San Diego State 88-54 a 19.5-point underdog (lost)
- Dec. 17 — Beat Georgia College 79-55 at home. (No line)
- Dec. 20— Beat South Carolina-Upstate 65-56 as an 7.5-point favorite (won)
Related stories on Indiana basketball
- WATCH MILLER KOPP, C.J. GUNN: Here is the link to watch Indiana's Miller Kop and C.J. Gunn talk about the Hoosiers' 96-72 win over Elon on Tuesday night. CLICK HERE
- XAVIER JOHNSON HAS FOOT SURGERY: Indiana point guard Xavier Johnson had foot surgery on Wednesday for an injury he suffered on Saturday at Kansas. According to a release from the school, they are hopeful he will return this season. CLICK HERE
- INDIANA-ELON GAME STORY: Without leading scorers Trayce Jackson-Davis and Xavier Johnson, Indiana coach Mike Woodson experimented with new rotations in a 96-72 win over Elon. Freshman CJ Gunn and sophomore Logan Duncomb finished with career highs in points, and Race Thompson led the way with an 18-point, 11-rebound double-double. CLICK HERE
- WHAT WOODSON SAID: Indiana basketball moved to 9-3 with a 96-72 win over the Elon Phoenix on Tuesday at Assembly Hall. Here's what coach Mike Woodson said after the game, with the full transcript and video attached. CLICK HERE
- WHAT KOPP, GUNN SAID: Indiana freshman CJ Gunn scored a career-high 11 points, and Miller Kopp added 13 as the Hoosiers defeated Elon 96-72 on Tuesday at Assembly Hall. Here's the full transcript of what Kopp and Gunn said after the game. CLICK HERE
