Three Takeaways From Indiana's Big Ten Tournament Draw

Indiana ended the regular season in disappointing fashion on Saturday, losing 91-78 at Ohio State.

While it was detrimental to the Hoosiers' NCAA Tournament chances, all hope isn't lost just yet as they'll have a chance to boost their resume in the Big Ten Tournament. That begins March 10 at the United Center in Chicago and concludes March 15, which is also Selection Sunday.

A 9-11 record in conference play made the Hoosiers the No. 10 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and earned them a first-round bye to Wednesday. Here's a look at the bracket.

The 2026 Big Ten Tournament Bracket. pic.twitter.com/6XsNBMRMr7
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 8, 2026

Indiana has work to do in the Big Ten Tournament, as it's currently projected to be the first team out of the NCAA Tournament, according to Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology from Sunday night. The Hoosiers are included in 40 of 79 NCAA Tournament projections on BracketMatrix.com, which would make them a No. 11 seed in the First Four round in Dayton. That means they'll likely need at least two wins in the Big Ten Tournament to feel good on Selection Sunday.

Here are three takeaway's on Indiana's draw in the Big Ten Tournament.

1. Indiana should be a heavy favorite in first game

Lamar Wilkerson Indiana Basketball — Indiana Hoosiers guard Lamar Wilkerson (3) celebrates against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Indiana awaits the winner of Tuesday's game between No. 15 Northwestern (13-18, 5-15) and No. 18 Penn State (12-19, 3-17), which is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. CT on Peacock. Against either opponent, the Hoosiers would likely be favored by seven-plus points.

Indiana made quick work of the Nittany Lions on Dec. 9, when Lamar Wilkerson set an Assembly Hall scoring record with 44 points on 16-for-22 shooting, including 10 3-pointers. It was one of the Hoosiers' best offensive performances of the season, as Reed Bailey, Tayton Conerway, Nick Dorn and Tucker DeVries all scored in double figures.

Penn State has had a rough season under coach Mike Rhoades, who has an 18-42 record in his first three seasons in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions have lost five of their last six games, and their three Big Ten wins against Iowa, Washington and Minnesota have come by a combined seven points. They're led in scoring by guards Freddie Dilione V and Kayden Mingo.

Perhaps the more likely Wednesday matchup for Indiana is Northwestern, which finished 5-15 in conference play with losses to Purdue and Minnesota in its last two outings. The Wildcats defeated the Hoosiers 72-68 at Assembly Hall in their lone matchup of the season. Nick Martinelli (22.8 ppg) finished second to Lamar Wilkerson (23.2) for the Big Ten scoring title, and he had 28 to lead the Wildcats to that upset victory.

Indiana blew an 11-point second-half lead in that game, and was outrebounded 34-23. Indiana never should have been in position to lose that game, but an obvious missed foul call on a DeVries' 3-point attempt in the final seconds should have given Indiana a chance to send the game to overtime. Maybe that will provide some extra motivation in a rematch, which is scheduled for Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. CT on Big Ten Network.

2. Rivalry rematch on tap

Tucker DeVries Indiana Basketball — Indiana Hoosiers forward Tucker Devries (12) shoots over Purdue Boilermakers center Daniel Jacobsen (12) at Mackey Arena. | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

With a win over Northwestern or Penn State, Indiana would advance to face No. 7 Purdue on Thursday at 5:30 p.m. CT on the Big Ten Network. The Boilermakers were the preseason No. 1 team in the nation, but they fell all the way to seventh in the conference standings after Saturday's home loss to Wisconsin.

A win over Purdue could be enough for Indiana to earn an NCAA Tournament bid, depending on other bubble results and bid-stealers, so it'd still be a nervous Selection Sunday. That sets the stakes high for the third Indiana vs. Purdue rivalry game of the season.

The Hoosiers won the first installment 72-67 at Assembly Hall, where Wilkerson and Dorn combined for 37 points. Trey Kaufman-Renn had a big game with 23 points, but Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer combined to shoot just 9-for-24 (37.5%) from the field.

The second matchup had quite the opposite outcome, as Purdue rolled to a 93-64 victory at Mackey Arena. The Boilermakers jumped out to a 6-0 lead, and it was really never a competive game as they led by 17 at halftime. Kaufman-Renn dominated again with 20 points on 8-for-10 shooting, while Smith and Loyer were much better this time around with 33 combined points.

It's fitting that a rivalry rematch would be played on a neutral court after both teams took care of business on their home floors in the regular season. For Indiana, it's a chance to potentially earn an NCAA Tournament bid with a win, despite losing five of the last six games. The Boilermakers are on a similar 2-4 skid, so they could use a good showing in the conference tournament for NCAA Tournament seeding purposes.

3. Favorable quarterfinal opponent

Tayton Conerway Indiana Basketball — Indiana's Tayton Conerway (6) drives against Nebraska at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Out of No. 1 Michigan, No. 2 Nebraska, No. 3 Michigan State and No. 4 Illinois, I think Indiana would prefer to play Nebraska if it had the choice. That's not to say Indiana necessarily has a strong chance of defeating the Cornhuskers, but it's perhaps the most favorable matchup of the four teams who earned a double-bye.

Considering Indiana lost 86-72 at Michigan, 71-51 at Illinois and fell by 21 and 17 points in two games against Michigan State, the Hoosiers played by far their most competitive game against Nebraska among the Big Ten's top four seeds. The Hoosiers led the Cornhuskers by nine at halftime and by six with 8:27 to play, only to blow several leads in an 83-77 defeat at Assembly Hall on Jan. 10.

Wilkerson led all scorers with 32 points, while DeVries and Bailey combined for 27 points and 15 rebounds in the front court. Indiana struggled to defend Nebraska guard Jamarques Lawrence, who finished with 27 points.

Nebraska was undefeated at the time of the first matchup, and made it all the way to 20-1 before a 75-72 loss at No. 3 Michigan. But since Jan. 27, the Cornhuskers are 6-5 with wins against Rutgers, Northwestern, Penn State, Maryland, USC and Iowa, each of whom finished ninth or lower in the Big Ten. That stretch also includes losses to Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa and most recently a 20-point defeat at UCLA.