Big Ten Football: Illinois vs Kansas Preview, Prediction
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Indiana vs Indiana State might be the Friday night football game this website is focused on, but it's not the only Big Ten action taking place.
Coach Bret Bielema and the Illinois Fighting Illini are traveling to Lawrence, Kan., to take on Lance Leipold and the Kansas Jayhawks in an exciting Big Ten vs Big 12 matchup. The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN2.
In past years, Illinois vs Kansas might have a dismal non-conference game to see on the schedule. Both programs have been maligned with losing records throughout most of the 21st century and their entire histories.
However, both are coming off breakout campaigns in 2022.
Bielema led Illinois to its first winning season since 2011 last year, and helped produce several NFL Draft picks in Devon Witherspoon, Chase Brown and Sydney Brown. The Illini rose to as high as No. 14 in the AP poll with a 7-1 record, before crashing back to earth with four losses in their final five games to finish 8-5 on the year.
Kansas, meanwhile, did not reach a winning record in Leipold's second year on the job, but did reach a bowl game for the first time since 2008. Heck, it was the first time the Jayhawks had more than three wins in a season since 2009. Leipold turning KU into a competitive football team in just two seasons is nothing short of miraculous.
As for Friday night's matchup, Kansas enters as a 3.5-point favorite on the spread. KU routed FCS opponent Missouri State 48-17 in its 2023 season opener, while Illinois had to twice comeback from major deficits at home against reigning MAC champion Toledo. If not for this prayer of a throw from new quarterback Luke Altmyer, Bielema's team would be entering this game at 0-1.
But complete the pass he did, and thus this is a matchup of two undefeated squads (as silly as that may sound after just one week of college football).
It's a brutally even game, as evidenced by the line giving Kansas just 3.5 points, almost solely due to its homefield advantage. SP+ (the wonderful college football team measuring metric created by ESPN's Bill Connelly) has Illinois ranked as the 53rd best team in the country, and Kansas ranked right behind them at 55th. Everything about it screams solid, fair matchup between two good, but not great, Power 5 teams.
Kansas does have one major edge in its favor, though — the return of Jalon Daniels.
The star quarterback is starting against Illinois on Friday after missing last Saturday's game against Missouri State with back tightness.
Daniels battled injuries in 2022 as well, but whenever he's been out there under Leipold, he's shined. In nine games last season, he threw for 2,014 yards and 18 touchdowns to just four interceptions, while also running for 425 yards and seven touchdowns. He's an electrifying, dual-threat playmaker that unlocks Leipold's boundary attacking offense.
Even if Daniels isn't fully ready to go, Kansas has a fully capable backup in Jason Bean, a sixth-year quarterback who has thrown for more than 4,000 yards and 39 touchdowns in his career. With how deadly and multiple the Jayhawks are in their rushing attack, all the signal caller in this offense needs to be is not detrimental. Bean was just that in Week 1, throwing for 276 yards and two touchdowns.
If Illinois wants to come away with an impressive road victory, it's going to have to rely on its stars in the trenches — Jer'Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph. Kansas has a veteran offensive line, and Leipold can dial it up as well as anyone, but there is no offensive solution to getting your teeth kicked in by superstars at the point of attack. If Newton and Randolph are living in the backfield, Illinois can win this game.
If not, I'm pretty confident it's going to be a big win for the Jayhawks on the road to their first winning season in 15 years.
PREDICTION: Kansas 34, Illinois 27
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