Could Indiana Really Go a Disappointing 9-3 in 2026?

It seems like "talking season" has already popped up on the college football calendar. It is the time of year where bold predictions is the hot topic. On Wednesday one bold prediction was given by Cover 3 Podcast host Tom Fornelli.

Indiana will go 9-3 and miss the College Football Playoff. It's a pretty bold prediction, which shows just how far the Hoosiers have come in two years under Curt Cignetti. However, is 9-3 actually possible for the Hoosiers?

I was asked for a BOLD prediction so I gave a BOLD prediction. pic.twitter.com/XS8VWlnYSU
— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) April 8, 2026

Why is 9-3 or Worse Possible for Indiana Football?

The defending national champions have plenty of reasons why they could only win nine games in 2026, and it starts with what they lost from the 2025 team.

Quarterback Fernando Mendoza was the ultimate glue guy. The chemistry of that team was off the charts and unbelievably special. Mendoza is off to the NFL.

The Hoosiers also lose star players like wide receiver Omar Cooper, linebacker Aiden Fisher, and cornerback D'Angelo Ponds. That's a lot of production, and it does not include starters like Pat Coogan, Elijah Sarratt, Louis Moore, or Devin Boykin.

The Hoosiers also have a tough middle of the schedule with a home game against Ohio State (Oct. 17) sandwiched by road trips to Nebraska and Michigan.

IU will also host USC, which is a dark horse Big Ten title contender. IU will also have to travel out to Washington to face the Huskies in late November. Dropping some combination of those three games is not out of the question.

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Why Won't the Hoosiers Fall Back to Earth?

It's pretty simple, Curt Cignetti has reloaded.

Yes, the Hoosiers lost plenty of production, they bring in what On3.com called the top recruiting class in the country. Josh Hoover comes in with 70-plus career touchdowns to his name.

The class also included wide receiver Nick Marsh, running back Turbo Richard, and many other starting-caliber players on both sides of the ball.

The Hoosiers' schedule does have some speed bumps, but IU is 27-2 overall and 15-0 at home under Cignetti. The schedule is also populated with teams that are facing uncertainty as well.

Nebraska is banking on transfer Anthony Colandrea to take them to the next level. Michigan brought in a whole new staff, and how is Washington and quarterback Demond Williams going to respond if things go sideways early? USC has to come to Indiana in November, and if they underperform early, things can get ugly for Lincoln Riley.

FInal Thoughts

Indiana is a different program under Cignetti. It does not lose bad games like it did in the past. It is hard to believe IU will lose three of the five games against Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Washington.

They bring back a core group that helped lead it to a national title in 2025, so the culture is not a full rebuild. Players like Isaiah Jones, Rolijah Hardy, Charlie Becker, and Carter Smith can help transition the portal haul and freshmen into Cignetti players.

An Indiana win total was a bold prediction before Cignetti, and it is still a bold prediction under Cignetti, but for different reasons.