ESPN's FPI Predicts Indiana vs Miami - Do the Hurricanes Have a Shot?

The time is near. The culmination of the college football season and the night every fan eagerly awaits: the national championship game. This year, it features an unexpected combination of teams: an undefeated Indiana club and a two-loss Miami unit – the latter of which many argued wasn’t worthy of a spot in the College Football Playoff.

It goes without saying: the Hoosiers, who have won their two CFP games by a combined 69 points over Alabama and Oregon, are the favorite heading into this matchup.

ESPN's analytics predict Indiana vs. Miami national championship clash

Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti walks the sideline Friday, Jan. 9, 2026, during the Peach Bowl and semifinal game of the College Football Playoff against the Oregon Ducks at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

But, just exactly how much of a chance do the Hurricanes have? Perhaps a bit more than the general consensus is giving them credit for, at least per ESPN’s matchup predictor.

ESPN’s analytics give Indiana a 68.3 percent chance of winning the title game (meaning Miami has a 31.7 percent chance of pulling off the upset). Interestingly, that digit is barely greater than the FPI predictor gave the Hoosiers to knock off the Ducks in the semifinal game – a contest that was expected to be tighter than this one (Indiana had a 66.9 percent chance of beating Oregon).

Is it a fair assessment?

Yes and no. At this exact moment, based on Miami’s impressive performance across three CFP outings – the headliner being the Canes’ thorough beating of Ohio State – there isn’t a team better-equipped to give Indiana a run for its money than Miami.

Naturally, there’s the logical line of thought: if the Hurricanes are in this position, why wouldn’t they be the best team to challenge the Hoosiers?

But it’s not simply the fact that Miami is playing its best ball of the season. It’s specifically how the Hurricanes have won these games: the line of scrimmage.

Rueben Bain gets the sack, but Akheem Mesidor made this play

The gap between them gets smaller the more I watch Miami… pic.twitter.com/MJaKarXhXC
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) December 20, 2025

No team in the country, aside from Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, has been able to battle with Indiana in the trenches. But Miami, which very likely boasts the best defensive line in the country, along with a stellar offensive line, has the pieces to do just that.

In fact, based on what the Hurricanes did to the Buckeyes, it’s possible – key word: possible – that they may actually have a leg-up on the Hoosiers in that category.

Nevertheless, there is every other facet of the game. Indiana has a relatively large advantage in the quarterback matchup, not to mention schematic capabilities on both sides of the field. There’s a reason Indiana is expected to take care of business on Monday night. The Hoosiers are the better team.

Then again, the better team doesn’t win every single night. If the Hurricanes put together a stellar enough game plan, they do have the talent to perhaps stick around, and with a fortunate stroke of luck, maybe even win the ball game. But to say they have a 31.7 percent chance of doing that – as ESPN’s matchup predictor asserts – may be a bit overambitious.