ESPN Computers Project Indiana vs. Oregon in Peach Bowl Showdown

No. 1 Indiana and No. 5 Oregon are set to battle Friday night in the Peach Bowl for a spot in the national championship. Both teams are seeking the first in the history of their programs, and both would likely be favored in the championship round regardless of who wins the Fiesta Bowl between Ole Miss and Miami.

Indiana looked as good as it has all season long in its 38-3 drubbing of Alabama in the Rose Bowl, while Oregon looked mighty fine in its 23-0 shellacking of Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl.

So who moves on in the showdown of Big Ten powerhouses? Our staff here at Indiana Hoosiers On SI made our predictions Friday, but others are now getting in picking the game.

ESPN FPI Predicts Indiana vs Oregon Peach Bowl

MATCHUP LOCKED.

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— Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (@CFAPeachBowl) January 2, 2026

ESPN has released its Football Power Index (FPI) prediction for Friday night's showdown between Indiana and Oregon. It sees Indiana as a significant favorite to move on to the National Championship game.

ESPN FPI Peach Bowl Odds: Indiana 66.9% chance of victory, Oregon 33.1% chance of victory

When these two teams met roughly halfway through the regular season in Oregon, it was the Ducks that ESPN FPI saw as the significant favorite. It gave Oregon a 69.5% chance of winning that day, and we all know how it ended up.

For what it's worth, ESPN FPI gives Miami a 55.6% chance of beating Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl and moving onto the national championship game.

ESPN FPI National Championship Odds:

Following the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals, ESPN FPI was updated to give national championship odds for each team.

Indiana is the favorite to win it all, given a 38.7% chance entering the semi-finals. The rest of the teams check in as follows:

Oregon: 23.8%
Miami: 22.2%
Ole Miss: 15.3%

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thoughts:

The numbers tell us what we fully expect - the winner of Friday night's game will be expected to hoist the big trophy at the conclusion of the National Championship game on January 19.

I'm not surprised that Indiana is favored, as the Hoosiers have been the No. 1 team on ESPN FPI for some time now, but I am surprised just how certain the formula seems to be that the Hoosiers move on.

I'm legit curious how it factors in injuries, the teams meeting a second time in the same season, the travel, and all the other variables that don't come with a regular-season game.