Game Prediction: Indiana and Purdue Battle for Old Oaken Bucket
In this story:
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana and Purdue battle for the Old Oaken Bucket on Saturday at Memorial Stadium. While the teams have been on opposite trajectories this season – Indiana is 4-7 and just snapped a seven-game losing streak, and Purdue is 7-4 after wins over Illinois and Northwestern – both schools circle this rivalry on the calendar each season.
Purdue is a 10-point favorite in this year's matchup, which has high stakes for both teams. With a win, Indiana can end the season with major momentum heading into the offseason, something that seemed impossible just a seven days ago. An outside chance at a bowl game with a 5-7 record is on the table, as well. For Purdue, a win over Indiana would crown the Boilermakers Big Ten West Champions after Iowa's home loss to Nebraska on Friday. Purdue would play play the winner of No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan in the Big Ten Championship.
To preview the matchup, HoosiersNow.com writer Jack Ankony and BoilermakersCountry.com writer D.J. Fezler got together to break down the top storylines in the 2022 Old Oaken Bucket game.
What do you expect from Aidan O'Connell and Purdue's strong passing attack against the Indiana defense?
D.J.: Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell paces the Big Ten with 283.4 yards passing per game, and his connection with wide receiver Charlie Jones has led to one of the top tandems in the conference this season. However, with the temperatures dropping late in November, the veteran signal-caller has eclipsed 200 yards through the air only once in the last three games.
A winning formula for the Boilermakers has come from a balanced offensive approach behind an improved rushing attack, designed to take some of the pressure off of O’Connell. But when this aerial attack finds a rhythm, the numbers begin to skyrocket.
The challenge for Purdue will be to limit mistakes and spread the football around. O’Connell has thrown 11 interceptions so far in 2022, and when the team falls behind, he’s made it a habit to force throws to Jones at times. But against Indiana’s bottom-ranked pass defense, all signs point toward a positive game for the offense in Bloomington.
Jack: This is the game's biggest mismatch, on paper. As D.J. mentioned, O'Connell leads the Big Ten in passing yards per game, and Indiana allows the most passing yards per game at 272.7.
Entering the season, Indiana's secondary was expected to be one of the team's best units, led by All-Big Ten veterans Tiawan Mullen, Jaylin Williams and Devon Matthews. The defensive backs aren't the only reason for Indiana's susceptible pass defense – the Hoosiers rarely generate a consistent pass rush – but this group has certainly taken a step back from the production it had in previous seasons.
Indiana has allowed a 100-yard receiver in five of the last eight games – Keon Coleman, Marvin Harrison Jr., Ronnie Bell, Trey Palmer and Tyler Scott – and Saturday's game features Purdue's Charlie Jones, who has caught a Big Ten-high 93 passes for 1,056 yards and 11 touchdowns. For Indiana, forcing the ball away from Jones could lead to mistakes for O'Connell, who leads the Big Ten with 11 interceptions.
After snapping Indiana's seven-game losing streak in his first start, what challenges does Dexter Williams II pose for Purdue?
Jack: Indiana entered last week's matchup at Michigan State as the Big Ten's worst rushing team, but that changed when Dexter Williams II made his first start at quarterback. The Hoosiers rushed for a season-high 257 yards, and it became clear that Michigan State was often confused by Williams' ability to run.
Shaun Shivers' 79-yard touchdown – Indiana's longest offensive play of the season – was set up by a read-option handoff from Williams, which forced the Michigan State defense to stay home on the opposite side. In total, Williams ran the ball 16 times for 86 yards, including a 34-yard touchdown on the opening drive.
Expect Indiana offensive coordinator Walt Bell to lean on the run game early and often against a Purdue run defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten. But in order for the Hoosiers to pull off an upset, Williams, who has a strong arm but only 12 completions in his college career, will have to show improved accuracy on a consistent basis through the air.
D.J.: For the first seven weeks of the season, the Boilermakers’ defensive line didn’t allow a 100-yard rusher, but when opposing offenses found success on the ground it was with mobility at the quarterback position.
In back-to-back games, Purdue allowed Syracuse’s Garrett Shrader (17 carries, 83 yards) and Florida Atlantic’s N’Kosi Perry (13 carries, 93 yards) to lead their respective teams in rushing yards early in the season. Both contests came down to the wire, and only one went in favor of the Boilermakers.
Indiana’s Dexter Williams II will likely warrant significant attention for his ability to make plays with his legs, especially after recording 16 rushing attempts in each of the last two games. Purdue lacks the speed on defense to combat a quarterback that can break contain and quickly turn upfield, and will likely put players in position to account for Williams’ affinity for running the football.
What big-picture impact would a win have on each of these programs?
Jack: As a 3-0 start turned into 3-7, most of Indiana's offseason additions in coaching and personnel hit a wall, and a path to future success was nearly impossible find. It appeared the Hoosiers would end the year on a nine-game losing streak after a collapsing by way of an eight-game losing streak to end 2021.
In the evolving world of college athletics with the transfer portal and NIL, Indiana was – and still could be – in a tough spot. Players can transfer without sitting out a year, and Tom Allen highlighted the impact of NIL on his program compared to other schools.
No longer do coaches just recruit high school players, they have to convince their current roster to stay. And what's the best way to do that? The simplest answer is by winning games. Playing time is a big factor, too, and Allen said he's had conversations throughout the season with his staff and players about the future.
In a season that felt completely lost a week ago, Indiana winning two trophy games to end the season wouldn't erase every mistake of the past, but it would go a long way in building optimism heading into next season.
"I don't know that you could put a value on it that would justifiably explain it," Allen said of the impact of late-season wins on his team.
D.J.: Depending on the outcome of a matchup between Iowa and Nebraska on Friday, Purdue could be playing for its first appearance in the Big Ten Football Championship Game in program history. The Boilermakers have already clinched bowl eligibility for the fourth time in six seasons under head coach Jeff Brohm and are looking to claim the Old Oaken Bucket for the fourth time in the last five years.
From a recruiting standpoint, Purdue is proving that it can reach the postseason with consistency and come out on top in the annual meeting between in-state rivals. After putting itself in contention in the Big Ten West and factoring in the immediate success of a player like Jones in one year with the program, another strong season could draw eyes not only from Indiana high school recruits but also from transfers looking to put themselves in a position to showcase their abilities in Brohm’s offensive system.
What is your score prediction for Saturday's Old Oaken Bucket rivalry game?
D.J.: Despite recent success for Purdue, a road game against Indiana is by no means an easy one. The Boilermakers have been in eight one-score games in 2022 while the Hoosiers look to use an upset victory over Michigan State as momentum to spoil the season finale for their arch-rival.
I could see the matchup swinging in either direction, but O’Connell’s experience at quarterback will likely be the difference for Purdue. If the team’s potent passing attack gets going, it’ll be too much for Indiana to handle.
Score prediction: Purdue 27, Indiana 23
Jack: It would have been easy for Indiana to pack things up and wish away another dismal season when it trailed by 17-points with 6:17 left in the the third quarter at Michigan State last week. Instead, the Hoosiers fought back to win in double-overtime, entering this year's Old Oaken Bucket game with momentum.
Saturday could be the last game in an Indiana uniform for a large chunk of the defense, which adds an extra bit of motivation going up against Purdue's talented offense. Indiana has a few miraculous wins over Illinois, Western Kentucky and Michigan State this season, but collapsed in one-score games in the fourth quarter in losses to Nebraska, Michigan, Maryland and Rutgers.
The biggest concerns for Indiana in this matchup revolve around a susceptible pass defense slowing down O'Connell, and Indiana's inexperienced but talented quarterback, Dexter Williams, taking a big step forward as a passer. I think it will be a close game, but I'm not sure Indiana can put it all together on both sides for four quarters.
Score prediction: Purdue 30, Indiana 27
Related stories on Indiana football
- CAM JONES HOPING TO PLAY: Indiana linebacker and team captain Cam Jones is hosting a coat drive in Lot 8 of Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind. on Wednesday. The fifth-year senior hasn't played since Oct. 1 at Nebraska when he suffered a foot injury, but he's not ruling out a return against Purdue in the Old Oaken Bucket game. CLICK HERE
- OPENING LINE: Indiana football (4-7) concludes the 2022 season with a rivalry matchup against Purdue (7-4) in the Old Oaken Bucket game in Bloomington, Ind. CLICK HERE
- O-LINE PAVES WAY FOR WIN AT MICHIGAN STATE: Indiana football has struggled with an inconsistent run game and shaky offensive line play in 2022. But in a 39-31 win at Michigan State on Saturday, the Hoosiers posted season-high run totals and the offensive line played its best game of the year. CLICK HERE
- GAME STORY: Indiana football won its first game since Sept. 17 with a 39-31 win over at Michigan State in double-overtime. With improbable touchdowns, a kickoff return, a tipped-ball interception and two blocked field goals in overtime, this game had it all. CLICK HERE
- INDIANA CELEBRATES OLD BRASS SPITTOON: Indiana's 39-31 double-overtime win at Michigan State led to plenty of postgame celebrations on the field and in the locker room. CLICK HERE
