Can Indiana Pull Off the Upset? ESPN's FPI Predicts Hoosiers vs Oregon

Both teams have been favored in every game of 2025 thus far. Which squad is the underdog for the first time this year?

Sep 27, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Louis Moore (7) reacts late in the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

ESPN’s well-respected Football Power Index has been spot-on in its projections of Indiana’s 2025 games to-date. The metric has pegged the Hoosiers as the favorite in each of their first five outings this year, and Curt Cignetti’s troops have gone on to prevail in all of those contests. 

Now, No. 7 Indiana (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) is set to meet up with a fellow undefeated Big Ten squad in No. 3 Oregon (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) in Eugene on Saturday. 

Back from the bye. pic.twitter.com/VZB02OJumD

— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) October 7, 2025

The FPI has also been 100 percent accurate in predicting the Ducks’ 2025 season thus far, even favoring Dan Lanning’s squad when it faced then-No. 3 Penn State in Happy Valley. (Per the analytical tool, Oregon had a 51.0 percent chance of beating Penn State on the road.)

So, which team will maintain its unblemished record after Week 7 – and will ESPN hold onto its perfect resume in predicting each club’s games?

ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts Indiana-Oregon

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning celebrates the Ducks’ win as the Oregon Ducks face the Penn State Nittany Lions on Sept. 27, 2025, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The metric gives Oregon a 69.5 percent chance of winning in Autzen Stadium on Saturday, meaning Indiana has a 30.5 percent chance of pulling off the upset. 

Where does Indiana rank in the FPI?

Sep 27, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti looks on during the fourth quarter against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The advanced numbers are extremely high on the Hoosiers, as they are ranked fourth in the country by the FPI. The analytical tool also gives Cignetti’s team a 71.8 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, along with an 8.4 percent chance of winning the national championship. 

Where does Oregon rank in the FPI?

Sep 27, 2025; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning reacts after defeating the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-Imagn Images | James Lang-Imagn Images

Tabbed No. 2 in the nation by the FPI, Oregon trails only Ohio State. The metric is quite confident in the Ducks’ ability to reach the College Football Playoff (86.1 percent), and gives them a solid shot of winning it all (15.6 percent chance of winning the national title). 

Is the FPI prediction accurate?

Head Coach Curt Cignetti during the Indiana versus Illinois football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025 | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana is a very good football team, and Cignetti has a valid argument as the best coach in the sport. That said, so is Oregon – and Lanning is one of the few men in the country that potentially has more of a right to lay claim to that title than Cignetti. 

And, of exceptional note, Lanning has been dominant at home during his four year tenure at Oregon. He’s lost just one game at Autzen Stadium. 

Can Indiana Pull This Off Against Oregon?

So, can the Hoosiers be the team to hand Lanning home loss No. 2, and give the Ducks their first misstep of the season? Well, if anybody can do it, it’s Cignetti and his Hoosiers. 

Nevertheless, 30 percent may be an overambitious estimation of Indiana’s chances in Week 7. Then again, the Hoosiers’ favorite pastime is shocking the college football world. Perhaps they will do it again this Saturday.