Hoosiers Now

ESPN's FPI Reveals Unexpected Pick for Indiana vs Ohio State

The Buckeyes are widely viewed as the favorite in this matchup by a solid margin, but not all metrics concur - and ESPN's FPI certainly doesn't.
Jackson Langendorf|
Nov 28, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti looks on before the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
Nov 28, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti looks on before the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

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Indiana Hoosiers

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana. The undisputed top two teams in the nation. A pair of undefeated juggernauts set to meet in a heavyweight clash for the ages, with a Big Ten championship, and presumably, the top spot in the College Football Playoff at stake. 

Two years ago, this matchup for the league title would’ve seemed outlandish. But, here in 2025, in just the second year of Curt Cignetti’s stint, it is very much the reality. Indiana-Ohio State meeting on the gridiron is no longer a David vs. Goliath matchup, but a clash between two worthy, evenly matched foes that can go blow for blow with one another. 

So, is it the Hoosiers or the Buckeyes that are the favorite? The tried-and-true powerhouse program on the heels of a national title and currently chasing another? Or the school that entered this season with more losses than any other team in college football history and is now in the midst of perhaps the greatest two-year turnaround the sport has ever seen?

ESPN's Football Power Index predicts Indiana-Ohio State clash

Curt Cignett
Nov 28, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti looks on during the third quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Given how poetically this season has unfolded for both Indiana and Ohio State, it feels as though the two programs' meeting is pure fate. So it’s only right the prediction is a toss-up. Still, there is a favorite – by the slightest of margins. ESPN’s FPI metric is riding with Indiana, giving Cignetti’s club a 50.6 percent chance of taking down Ryan Day and Ohio State. 

Is it a fair assessment?

Heading into this campaign, even with Indiana’s magical 2024 year, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone – aside from a delusional Hoosiers fan – that’d pick Indiana to beat Ohio State in Bloomington, let alone on a neutral field. 

Yet 12 games later, this clash in Indianapolis is truly a battle of two nearly flawless teams. Ohio State is methodical, disciplined, otherworldly talented and extremely well-coached. Indiana has, at the very least, an equally gifted mastermind pulling the strings in Cignetti and features its fair share of talent – although it can’t quite rival that of the Buckeyes’ across the board. 

Purely on paper, despite Indiana thoroughly dismantling every team that has been put in front of it, it’s still difficult not to feel as though Ohio State has the advantage. The Buckeyes have second-to-none playmakers throughout their roster, and the tandem of wideouts Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate is comparable to nothing the Hoosiers defense has seen. 

Then again, Ohio State hasn’t been challenged in a way that can rival the problems Indiana will pose – on either side of the football. And, considering Cignetti’s penchant for shocking the world, one would be simply foolish to count out the Hoosiers.

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Jackson Langendorf
JACKSON LANGENDORF

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