GameDay Prediction: Can Indiana Return to Its Winning Ways Against Maryland?
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana has learned how to accomplish many new things this season, and now the Hoosiers have reached another challenge. Can they bounce back from a loss?
The Hoosiers started the season with four straight wins, including upsets of Penn State and Michigan at home. They got beat 42-35 last week at Ohio State, but showed a lot of fortitude in rallying in the second half.
And now comes an interesting challenge Saturday at Memorial Stadium. The Hoosiers host Maryland, who is 2-1 but hasn't played the last two weeks because of an outbreak of positive COVID-19 tests inside their program.
Making a prediction here isn't easy, for a multitude of reasons. But since I'm 5-0 on predicting Indiana games so far this season against the spread, I'm sure you're waiting with baited breath.
Here's the deal with Indiana: I've been telling you for going on two months now that the Hoosiers were legitimately good. I've got them figured out pretty well, and I think they'll answer the bell pretty well on Saturday. This is a very mature, experienced team and that 1-0 mindset that they preach is real. They shook off that Ohio State loss and went right to work on Maryland. They'll be fine.
The problem is trying to figure out Maryland — even before the two weeks of cancellations. I still can't figure out if they're any good or not.
I watched every down of their season opener, a 43-3 beatdown by Peyton Ramsey and Northwestern. I figured the Terps were the worst team in the league, or close.
But then they beat Minnesota and Penn State in back-to-back weeks, and their offense looked great. They can score, and they can score in a variety of ways. They are very dangerous is space and they have a quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, who has that same fearlessness gene that Indiana's Michael Penix Jr. has.
Indiana is a 12-point favorite on Saturday morning. The line started at 14.5 and dropped as low as 11. This is the first home game where the Hoosiers are favored.
It's a lot of points, especially considering that the last four games between these two have been one-score battles.
But that doesn't concern me.
Maryland's defense is pretty shaky. They're young secondary is ripe for the picking, and I can see Penix having another great game. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if receivers Ty Fryfogle and Whop Philyor both go over 100 yards, and I'm thinking it my be time for tight end Peyton Hendershot to quit dropping the ball and having a big day.
Maryland will be without six or seven starters, according to Saturday morning reports. That's a factor. Another factor is not getting much practice in during the past three weeks. We saw how that impacted Wisconsin last week, when it committed five turnovers in a loss to Northwestern.
Indiana has been great at forcing turnovers all season, and I see more of that today. They didn't convert turnovers into points against the Buckeyes, but they've done it to everyone else. I see that happening on Saturday as well.
I don't think the Hoosiers have any trouble covering that number. I called it 41-24 Indiana earlier this week on a podcast with a Maryland colleague, and I can stand with that number. If anything, I think maybe Indiana's defense plays a little better than that.
It's a beautiful day in Bloomington, sunny and a bit chilly, but with no rain or wind, I can see Indiana's offense having a huge day. It's the Hoosiers in a rout, and take it to the bank. I'm going to 6-0.
My gambling friend Walter Ego, who's followed me every step of the way on Indiana, is all over the Hoosiers, too. He was a little worried with that opening line, but thought it would go down. When it hit 11 on Thursday, he went all in with a lot of stacks.
Walter is 15-4 on the the Big Ten this year. He's taking it pretty light this week because of the cancellations with Minnesota-Wisconsin and Illinois-Ohio State. He's taking a small stack on Northwestern minus-13 at Michigan State, and taking Rutgers plus 12 points at Purdue. Really small stacks, though.
Related stories on Indiana football
- HOW TO WATCH: Here's everything you need to know about Indiana's game against Maryland, including game times, TV information and more. CLICK HERE
- NEW UNIFORMS: Indiana will finally get to wear its "Salute to Service'' memorial uniforms on Saturday against Maryland. CLICK HERE
- INDIANA FOOTBALL SPENDS THANKSGIVING TOGETHER: It was a different Thanksgiving week than Indiana football is used to. Here's what the Hoosiers did. CLICK HERE
- INDIANA-MARYLAND PODCAST: Tom Brew and Ahmed Ghafir broke down the Indiana versus Maryland coming up this Saturday. CLICK HERE
