Best & Worst Case Scenarios for Iowa MBB on Selection Sunday

The Iowa Hawkeyes' ideal scenario isn't what one might expect.

Mar 8, 2026; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) shoots a three-point shot against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during overtime at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Just hours away from Selection Sunday, and the Iowa Hawkeyes men's basketball team is eyeing their first at-large bid in the tournament since the 2022-23 season.

Oddly enough, their former coach, Fran McCaffery, may be joining them in the NCAA Tournament.

Regardless, first-year head coach Ben McCollum has done a tremendous job turning this program around. He led them to their first 20+ win season since 2021-22 when they finished 26-10.

Iowa isn't a "lock" to make the tournament, but it would be quite a surprise not to see them featured. The two-year drought will likely come to an end, but Hawkeyes fans actually want their team to fall to a double-digit seed.

Best Case Scenario: Fall to No. 10 Seed

Iowa guard Bennett Stirtz (14) motions for the crowd to get loud March 5, 2026 during a Big Ten basketball game against the Michigan Wolverines at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As of 2:15 a.m. EST on March 15, Joe Lunardi had Iowa as a projected No. 9 seed in his final Bracketology update. There are only a few conference championship games left to be played, but obviously, Iowa isn't in the Big Ten Championship.

Had they beaten Ohio State and at least made a solid attempt to take down Michigan, they likely would've been locked into a No. 8 seed. Now, they remain No. 9 in the West region, one that sees Arizona as the No. 1.

Should they take down No. 8 Utah State, they'd have to face the Wildcats in round two. That's not an ideal matchup for anyone, and Iowa would much rather face No. 7 Miami in the first round than try to upset No. 2 Michigan State in the second round. They already lost to the Spartans this year, but that was back on Dec. 2, and plenty has changed since then.

Worst Case Scenario: Face Clemson in the First Round

Mar 13, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Darren Harris (8) handles the ball guarded by Clemson Tigers forward Nick Davidson (11) during the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Lunardi just dropped Clemson to a No. 8 seed, which means there's a chance Iowa could do battle with the Tigers immediately. Clemson was at one point projected to be a No. 5 seed and while they lost to Duke in their conference tournament, that's something most teams that played the Blue Devils can say this season.

Clemson seems to be by far the most dangerous No. 8 seed out there. Iowa will likely find themselves as a No. 9 seed, though they're locked out of facing No. 8 Ohio State in the first round. That leaves Georgia as the other projected No. 8 seed, a team that also isn't ideal, but the Bulldogs look far scarier simply due to the fact that Iowa has been horrendous in their last 10 games.

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