Film Study: Why Iowa Will Upset Nebraska in NCAA Tournament

The Iowa Hawkeyes are looking to take down a major rival and move on to the Elite Eight.

Mar 8, 2026; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Braden Frager (5) drives against Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) during the first half at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

As the Iowa Hawkeyes enter the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1999, one question is ringing through everybody’s heads: Can the team pull off the upset against the Nebraska Cornhuskers and move on to the Elite Eight?

When just looking at the seed lines, it’s hard to imagine the Hawkeyes moving forward in the tournament. The Cornhuskers had a fantastic season and earned a No. 4 seed, while Iowa, which had a much more up-and-down campaign, was slotted as a No. 9. But this is March Madness, where chaos and, well, madness ensue to an overwhelming degree.

Just look at how Iowa got to the Sweet 16 in the first place! It had to take down the reigning national champions, and now it’s here, ready to face a heated rival.

While there are several reasons why taking down Nebraska is possible, there’s also a litany of basketball reasons to look out for as well. Whether it’s Bennett Stirtz taking over the game or Nebraska guard Pryce Sandfort being cold from beyond the arc, the tale of the tape says that Iowa has a fairly decent shot at moving on to the Elite Eight.

Stirtz Needs to Shoot

Iowa guard Bennett Stirtz (14) shoots the basketball as Nebraska forward Pryce Sandfort (21) and Nebraska guard Sam Hoiberg (1) defend Feb. 17, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The first key to success for the Hawkeyes is Bennett Stirtz’s shooting ability. If he can light up the box score, then there’s a fairly decent chance that Iowa will survive and advance. It takes just one glance at the team’s previous matchups with the Cornhuskers to come to this conclusion.

On Feb. 17, Stirtz put up 25 points in a 57-52 victory for Iowa against Nebraska. A couple of weeks later, the ‘Huskers won 84-75 in overtime in the regular-season finale in Lincoln.

What changed? Stirtz’s scoring output, of course. He had just 11 points in the defeat, a disappointing effort from the team’s best player in what was a major chance to improve Iowa’s resume heading into the postseason.

All that said, it’s safe to assume that Iowa will be in good hands if Stirtz does what he’s capable of doing. The equation is simple: Stirtz scores a lot equals an Iowa win.

Sandfort Can Kill the Hawkeyes from Deep

Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Pryce Sandfort (21) celebrates after making a 3-pointer during a first-round game in the NCAA men's basketball tournament between Nebraska and Troy at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Thursday, March 19, 2026. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Pryce Sandfort can shoot the heck out of the basketball.

No, that’s not hyperbole. He is the definition of a lethal weapon from deep. On the season, he’s shooting 41% from 3-point range and 47.5% overall. In Nebraska’s 76-47 beatdown of Troy in the first round of the NCAA tournament — the Cornhuskers’ first win ever in the Big Dance — Sandfort made seven 3-pointers en route to scoring 23 points.

Just like with Stirtz, the equation for success for Iowa is simple: Limit Sandfort’s ability to hurt you from deep, and that probably equals a victory. If the Hawkeyes can’t do that, and Sandfort subsequently turns into Steph Curry, then everything is probably a wash anyway.

What’s Next for the Hawkeyes?

The Hawkeyes and the Cornhuskers will match up in what should be a heated clash of rivals on March 26 at the Toyota Center in Houston. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. CT. The game will be televised on TBS and truTV.

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