Iowa Drops a Seed in Latest Bracketology Projection

March Madness is right around the corner, but first the Iowa Hawkeyes must make it out of the regular season.

A pair of games against No. 3 Michigan and No. 9 Nebraska leaves the team in trouble as there's little room to take another pair of losses.

Iowa could easily head to the tournament having lost six of their last eight games and that's not a position any team wants to be in.

First year head coach Ben McCollum has done a terrific job thus far, but he must finish the job. Making the NCAA Tournament is within sight, but Iowa remains a low seed, one that continues to fall.

Iowa Drops to No. 9 Seed

Iowa G Bennett Stirt — Feb 25, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) reacts with fans after the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

There isn't much else Iowa can do but hold on tight and hope they remain a single-digit seed. Should they lose to both the Wolverines and Cornhuskers, there's no way that becomes a possibility.

Iowa suffered a brutal 71-69 loss at Penn State against a Nittany Lions team that previously only had two conference wins. That loss is unacceptable, and that's the only way to put it. Somehow, that word still doesn't feel strong enough for how bad that loss truly was.

The Hawkeyes were at one point projected to be a No. 6 seed, but now they're potentially looking at the 10-12 range should they end the year losing three in a row. There's nothing wrong with losing to a pair of Top 10 teams, it's just extremely hard to be high on a team that goes into the tournament with little to no momentum.

A Closer Look at Iowa's Region

Iowa HC Ben McCollu — Feb 11, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum sends instructions to his team in the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images | Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

As always, take these projections with a grain of salt, as a lot can happen in the next few weeks. Seeing as the conference tournaments are right around the corner, that will be Iowa's final plea at not dropping any further.

No. 8 Saint Louis would take on No. 9 Iowa in the East region, one headlined by No. 1 Duke. Should the Hawkeyes get past a 26-3 Billikens squad, they'd be tasked with playing the 28-2 Blue Devils. Clearly, neither is an ideal matchup.

That said, Iowa facing Saint Louis would be extremely interesting. Earlier in the year, McCollum swapped out the Billikens for Bucknell. That non-conference game went the Hawkeyes way with ease, as one would expect. There's a backstory to the schedule change though, one that could create quite a bit of drama in the Round of 64.

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