Inside The Hawkeyes

Iowa Faces Must-Win Scenario vs. Penn State

Looking at the rest of their schedule, the Iowa Hawkeyes simply can't afford to lose to Penn State.
Jordon Lawrenz|
Feb 25, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) controls the ball as forward Cam Manyawu (3) sets a screen against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the second half at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
Feb 25, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) controls the ball as forward Cam Manyawu (3) sets a screen against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the second half at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

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Iowa Hawkeyes

The Iowa Hawkeyes secured their 20th win on February 25 when they took down Ohio State, 74-57.

Looking at how that game went, there's no reason to believe Iowa should have any issues against Penn State.

That said, the Nittany Lions get to play at home which makes things interesting. Sure, they've lost three straight and have lost 13 of the 15 games they've played in 2026, but anything can happen in the B1G.

Iowa's tournament hopes seem to be rock-solid, but a loss to this Penn State team would change everything. The Nittany Lions come into this game 11-17 (2-15), so this is as must-win as it gets.

Iowa Given 81% Chance to Win

ESPN Analytics gives the home team just a 19% chance to come out on top. This game sees Iowa as 9.5 point favorites which goes along with how they've beaten teams of Penn State's caliber this season. The Hawkeyes tend not just to beat them, but they beat the brakes off of them.

First year head coach Ben McCollum wasn't about to let his stellar start go to waste. Iowa may be 2-3 in their last five but the only bad loss in there was their seven point road defeat at Maryland. Other than that, there's not a ton of shame in losing to either No. 13 Purdue or No. 24 Wisconsin, two teams who are locks in the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa may not be a lock yet, and a victory over PSU may not do it either, but notching a 21st win would seem to be more than enough to get the job done. They're projected to be a lower single-digit seed, but at this point they'll take anything to end their tournament drought.

Iowa Could Easily Lose Their Final Two Games

Iowa HC Ben McCollu
Iowa head coach Ben McCollum reacts during a basketball game against the Northwestern Wildcats Feb. 8, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Losing to both No. 3 Michigan and No. 12 Nebraska is a real possibility so that makes this Penn State game even more important. Iowa can't suffer a loss here, it's as simple as that. Should they lose to PSU and then lose their final two games, they'd head into the B1G tournament on a three-game skid where they lost six of their last eight.

Teams want momentum heading into the NCAA Tournament. Iowa doesn't want to be treading water, even if they had done enough at that point to sneak their way into the dance. Either way, Iowa shouldn't have a ton of issues beating PSU, but never say never in a conference like this.

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Jordon Lawrenz
JORDON LAWRENZ

Jordon Lawrenz serves as the Eastern United States College Recruiting beat writer On SI. Jordon is an accomplished writer covering the NFL, MLB, and college football/basketball. He has contributed to PFSN’s and Heavy’s NFL coverage. Having graduated from the University of Wisconsin - Green Bay with a Sports Communication and Journalism degree, Jordon fully embraced the sports writing lifestyle upon his relocation to Florida.

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