Latest Bracketology Projection Sees Iowa Trending Downward

While there's still so much time left in the season, it's always fun to keep up with Bracketology. March Madness is as good as it gets, and the Iowa Hawkeyes know this could be their year to make an impact.

Second year head coach Jan Jensen wasn't able to guide her team to victory in Ames. No. 10 Iowa State got the job done, and that directly affected their spot in this week's projections.

Now, Iowa has fallen one seed, though they're still projected to play in Iowa State. Things could get extremely interesting though if this projected bracket plays out a certain way.

Iowa Falls To No. 4 Seed

Iowa C Ava Heide — Iowa Hawkeyes center Ava Heiden (5) shoots the ball around Iowa State Cyclones' forward Addy Brown (24) during the fourth quarter in the NCAA women’s basketball Cy-Hawk Series on Dec. 10, 2025, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After starting the season 9-0, ESPN took notice. This Hawkeyes team is legit, and they were awarded with a No. 3 seed last week. Sadly, that didn't last. They were ranked No. 4 two weeks prior, so in all reality this isn't that much of a downgrade.

Regardless, Iowa is projected to host one, if not two games in Iowa City. That's a huge advantage to have in the tournament, and there's no doubt Hawkeyes fans would pack the arena to give the ultimate home-court advantage.

This projection has Iowa in Region 1 - Fort Worth. The team at the top is the No. 1 overall seed, UConn. Seeing as Iowa will play them in the Champions Classic, that could set up a massive rematch in the tournament.

Iowa's Path To The Final Four

Iowa F Hannah Stuelk — Dec 10, 2025; Ames, Iowa, USA; Iowa State Cyclones Audi Crooks (55) defends Iowa Hawkeyes Hannah Stuelke (45) during the second half at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-Imagn Images | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

Iowa still has plenty of time to avoid being in Region 1 as there are two teams they absolutely do not want to face again. The first is the aforementioned Huskies, but the second is NO. 3 Iowa State.

First, the Hawkeyes need to focus on their opponents. Should this projection stand, they would first take on No. 13 UC Irvine. For what it's worth, Irvine also dropped in this week's projections.

A win for Iowa would have them face either No. 5 Ole Miss or No. 12 Colorado State. Ole Miss would be a fun second-round matchup, one that would likely see the winner play the Huskies in the Sweet 16.

The bottom of the bracket features No. 2 Oklahoma with the Cyclones at No. 3. Other notable teams include No. 6 Ohio State and No. 7 Washington. The Buckeyes have been on the rise recently, so it wouldn't be surprising to see them end up a bit higher than a six seed.

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