March Madness Tournament Projection: What Seed Will Iowa Men Get?

The Iowa Hawkeyes should absolutely be in the NCAA Tournament, it's just undecided what seed they'll be.

Mar 11, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum on the bench against the Maryland Terrapins during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

The Iowa Hawkeyes first season under Ben McCollum was overall a success, though there's still plenty of room to grow.

McCollum was able to guide this team to a win in the B1G Tournament, but Ohio State got the best of them in the third round, 72-69.

Iowa sits at 21-12 (10-10) with Selection Sunday right around the corner. There's a clear floor and ceiling for this team, though there's a case to be made for why the Hawkeyes would actually prefer to be a double-digit seed.

Overall, Iowa has one quality win. Their 57-52 victory over No. 9 Nebraska was impressive, but they have quite a few poor losses and they head into the NCAA Tournament having lost seven of their last ten.

Floor: No. 10 Seed

Final Score: Ohio State 72, Iowa 69

— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) March 12, 2026

Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology projection, which was updated at 12:10 a.m. EST on March 13, has Iowa as a No. 9 seed. They've bounced around quite a bit from No. 8 to No. 10, but the common denominator seems to be eight or nine.

There shouldn't be a scenario where they fall below No. 10, but dropping from No. 9 to No. 10 could be ideal. If they remain the No. 9 seed, or even jump up to No. 8, they'll have to play the No. 1 seed in the second round. Granted, they need to win their first round game first.

In this bracket, Iowa is in the Midwest region which has Michigan as the No. 1 seed. Sure, they took the Wolverines to their limit at Carver not too long ago, but things could go entirely different at a neutral site when the lights shine the brightest.

Ceiling: No. 8 Seed

Mar 12, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) drives to the basket against Ohio State Buckeyes guard Bruce Thornton (2) during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Knowing they're a No. 9 seed in this projection, it's impossible to imagine a scenario where they end up higher than No. 8. A matchup with the No. 1 seed in the second round is all but finalized at this point which is exactly why falling to No. 10 wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

Potential No. 2 seeds include Iowa State, UConn, Houston, and Michigan State. Iowa has actually lost to two of those teams already, but they would have more of a fighting chance against those teams compared to the likes of Michigan, Duke, Arizona, and Florida who are all nearly locks to be No. 1 seeds.

Iowa can't look past their first round opponent, but when it comes to a potential run in the tournament, they're best suited not being a No. 8 or No. 9 seed. Obviously, all of this is out of their control but Hawkeyes fans will find out at the same time as McCollum and company.

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