ESPN FPI Is Undervaluing Iowa Football Ahead of the Cy-Hawk Rivalry

Was a 40-0 dominant win not enough for the Iowa Hawkeyes? The ESPN FPI seems to think not in a curious case of how it treated the Hawkeyes' ranking.

Sep 5, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes defensive end Iose Epenesa (97) and defensive back Noah Daniel (29) come off the field before the game against the Northern Illinois Huskies at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Data metrics and computer models are anything but the final story in college football, as we all know. The statistics can only tell part of the story and can be manipulated to paint a desirable narrative.

In the case of the Iowa Hawkeyes this week, the computers can have some disrespect rooted in them, despite the unbiased analysis of data they should have.

Iowa took down Northern Illinois by a score of 40-0 in a week when other ranked teams found themselves in battles, yet it has somehow hurt the Hawkeyes in the ESPN FPI.

Someway, somehow Iowa dropped in the ESPN FPI

Iowa looked every bit the good Big Ten team in its Week 1 showing. The run game bullied Northern Illinois. The passing game flashed explosiveness at times.

The defense legitimately didn't allow even one foot per carry. And the special teams, as Iowa always does, scored a touchdown.

So, what does all that mean? Iowa dropped from No. 25 to No. 26 in the updated ESPN FPI, somehow. For a team to win 40-0, when it could have hung up 60, is where the computer models are flawed. Iowa called off the dogs and got out of the extreme heat in this game with as few injuries as possible.

ESPN FPI Predictions for Iowa Football

The win has not changed a ton regarding predictive metrics for the Iowa Hawkeyes moving forward. The win was expected, which has left most of Iowa's future predictions intact and on the same trajectory.

Projected Record: 7.8 - 4.2

Chance to Win Out: 0.2%

Chance to Make a Bowl Game: 88.8%

Chance to Win the Big Ten: 1.5%

Chance to Make the College Football Playoff: 10.4%

Chance to Make the National Championship: 0.6%

Chance to Win the National Championship: 0.2%

Riley Donald's Quick Thoughts

While I do think the computer model is flawed right now in the fact that it slid a Big Ten team down a spot after a 40-0 win, there is some reason to pause and offer some grace.

The sample size is so small, with the majority of college football teams having just one game of data to go off. I think we will see things stabilize and treat Iowa correctly moving forward.

If the Hawkeyes can find a way to take care of business against the Iowa State Cyclones in the Cy-Hawk game, I wouldn't be shocked to see this sort of eye-opening movement come in the other direction for Iowa, who would have a Power Four win under its belt.