Make it Make Sense: Iowa Football Slides in ESPN FPI During Bye Week

ESPN FPI is unforgiving to Iowa this year to the point of sliding the Hawkeyes, even as they sat idle on a bye. The data only gets more confusing.

Sep 19, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes running back Braeden Jackson (22) and running back Nathan McNeil (5) react after a touchdown by McNeil against the UNI Panthers during the first quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Iowa Hawkeyes had the weekend off after jumping out to a 5-1 start to the season, which came at just the right time. Iowa had a grind of a stretch against Michigan, Ohio State, and Washington. This bye week came at a perfect time to get healthy.

And Iowa needs to be healthy. The Hawkeyes have a six-game stretch ahead of them, with everything, including the College Football Playoff, in the palm of their hands if they can take care of business. Things start with a road trip to Minnesota for the Floyd of Rosedale rivalry next weekend.

Iowa remains a fringe team in ESPN FPI rankings

The metrics are once again not overly high for the Hawkeyes. Iowa is a fringe team, coming in at No. 25 in the latest ESPN FPI rankings, which raises some eyebrows. The largest issue I have with these rankings is sliding Iowa four spots during a bye week.

ESPN FPI Predictions for Iowa Football

While Iowa's ranking in the ESPN FPI each week remains questionable at best, without much making sense, the overall projections for the rest of the Hawkeyes' season remain largely similar.

In fact, Iowa's College Football Playoff odds jumped ever so slightly, which is likely due to others' missteps more than anything the Hawkeyes did.

Projected Record: 8.9-3.2

Chance to Win Out: 3.0%

Chance to Make a Bowl Game: 99.7%

Chance to Win the Big Ten: 1.8%

Chance to Make the College Football Playoff: 22.0%

Chance to Make the National Championship: 1.1%

Chance to Win the National Championship: 0.3%

Riley Donald's Quick Thoughts

It seems that the reality for the Iowa Hawkeyes is that they are going to remain a team doubted and ranked a bit lower than their contemporaries, despite their record and success this year. Is that fair or right? Is anything about college football nowadays fair or right?

What I really believe is that Iowa is not going to get the benefit of the doubt down the stretch. Iowa has the win over Michigan, which can hopefully grow stronger each week if the Wolverines catch fire, but will lack other resume-boosters.

One misstep, and Iowa is going to see the hammer brought down pretty harshly. The Hawkeyes are going to have to force the issue of making noise in the College Football Playoff race down the stretch by remaining a one-loss team that the college football world simply can't ignore.