Why Iowa Football's Glass is Half Full and Half Empty in 2026

Few fans can manufacture a smile or produce a frown as quickly as college football fans can.

It's a truly special trait. The season can be going good, even great, but one play, and it's all over; it's done, wrap it up. It's the classic battle of viewing the glass as half full or half empty each Saturday in the fall.

For the Iowa Hawkeyes, Kirk Ferentz has managed to keep that glass at an even, steady mark for 27 years, but 2026 has two reasons the glass could be viewed as both half full or half empty.

Glass Half Full: Lock in at least 8 wins... right?

Oct 11, 2025; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz eyes the field before a game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ross Harried-Imagn Images | Ross Harried-Imagn Images

I'm putting on my smile and looking at the sunlight. Iowa is going to get to eight wins. It's what they do.

Iowa has won at least eight games in each of the last 10 full seasons, bowl games included. This team is going to win a lot more than they lose, which simply makes fall Saturdays better.

Take a step back, too. Do you know how many teams in the country would take a nearly guaranteed eight wins each season? I'm talking to you, Nebraska...

Glass Half Empty: The defense could face regression

Iowa Football’s Defensive Coordinator Phil Parker answers media questions Tuesday, Aug. 20, 2024 in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK

I don't like doubting Phil Parker. It feels like making a bet you know you are going to lose.

Eventually, the defense has to have a down year. It's not anything more than that. There are new faces, new starters, and there is going to be a year where the Hawkeyes have just an average defense.

This is a really doom-and-gloom outlook on the new faces, which could be stuffed right back in my face with Parker's track record of successfully navigating new players in his scheme year after year.

Glass Half Full: A 4-0 rivalry slate is very in play

Nov 28, 2025; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes wide receiver Reece Vander Zee (15) runs against Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive back Ceyair Wright (1) during the third quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Iowa absolutely ran through its Big Ten rivalry slate in 2025, beating Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska by a combined score of 118-19. The closest game was a 40-16 beatdown handed to Nebraska in Lincoln.

The thorn growing in Iowa's side as of late has been the Week 2 Cy-Hawk game against Iowa State. A rivalry dominated by Iowa for some time has seen the Cyclones respond.

This year's game sees Iowa as a big favorite over Iowa State and, on paper, a coin flip, at worst, if not favored against the three Big Ten rivals.

A 4-0 rivalry mark is nothing to slouch over. That's a big goal and a serious box to check for the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Glass Half Empty: The early Big Ten schedule

Dec 31, 2025; Arlington, TX, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) celebrates after he runs for a touchdown during the 2025 Cotton Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The early-season non-conference slate is as good as Iowa could ask for.

But the Big Ten schedule could crash Iowa's party before it even gets started, if we really want to get pessimistic.

The Big Ten opener at Michigan, followed by Ohio State coming to Kinnick, and a short-week trip to Washington... Oh, boy.

There is a world Iowa emerges from this as a College Football Playoff contender. There is also a world where simple bowl eligibility comes into play.

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