How Iowa Football's Record Prediction Compares to the Big Ten

It's Iowa. You know the Hawkeyes will win the games they are supposed to, but can they surprise someone along the way?

Aug 9, 2025; A detail view of a logo for the Big Ten Conference is seen during the Hawkeyes Kids Day NCAA football open practice at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Cress for the Des Moines Register | Joseph Cress/For the Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The table is set for the Big Ten in 2026. The heavyweights are reloaded with talent, and the conference is waiting to see if a dark horse can make noise wiht a serious run.

Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes are in that second group. They have been lurking for some time, putting up eight and nine wins each year, but stuck on that plateau.

To take the next step, Iowa not only needs to win the games they are supposed to, but also needs to elevate itself by stunning someone at the top of the conference.

Iowa's projected win total in 2026

In the latest projections, the Hawkeyes are projected to finish with a 9-3 record, which includes a 6-3 mark in Big Ten play. Based on other teams in the conference, it ends up just shy of the top dogs with another mid-to-upper bowl trip.

It is quintissential Iowa. These projections figure in Iowa beating up on some of the lowly Big Ten teams, but falling to the College Football Playoff contenders due to a lack of proven success against them.

Iowa's projected wins come against all three of its non-conference opponents, Northern Illinois, Iowa State, and Northern Iowa.

In Big Ten play, Iowa picks up impressive road wins at Michigan and Washington, while also taking down Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, and Nebraska.

The Hawkeyes are picked to drop a home game versus Ohio State, then games at Minnesota and Illinois.

Teams finishing above Iowa

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning walks the field during warmups as the Oregon Ducks take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 1, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Iowa Hawkeyes are projected to finish seventh in the Big Ten standings, which sees a logjam of Iowa, USC, Washington, and Penn State all at 9-3.

Oregon Ducks: 11-1 (8-1)
Ohio State Buckeyes: 10-2 (8-1)
Indiana Hoosiers: 10-2 (7-2)
USC Trojans: 9-3 (6-3)
Washington Huskies: 9-3 (6-3)
Penn State Nittany Lions: 9-3 (6-3)
Iowa Hawkeyes: 9-3 (6-3)
Michigan Wolverines: 8-4 (6-3)
Illinois Fighting Illini: 8-4 (5-4)

Riley Donald's Final Takeaway

The final mark of 9-3 makes sense. How we got there is a bit of a less-traveled road, in my opinion.

This projection sees Iowa starting out 5-1, which includes road wins at Michigan and Washington. If that holds true, Iowa would control its College Football Playoff destiny before the halfway point of the year.

If we can speak freely, that start would be even better than most Iowa fans' wildest dreams.

Where these projections lose me a little bit is the losses to Minnesota and Illinois. If Iowa got to 5-1, this would be its best chance at the CFP under Kirk Ferentz since 2015. With the clock ticking on Ferentz's career, a start like that could see Iowa pull off some magic.