Iowa Historically Bad in One-Score Games Under Kirk Ferentz

Iowa Hawkeyes fans don't want to hear it, but their three losses this season are by a combined 10 points. They lost to Iowa State by three, Indiana by five, and Oregon by two. All three losses have come in heartbreaking fashion, but it plays the same tune of what Kirk Ferentz has become accustomed to in his career.

The Hawkeyes are now 6-3 (4-2 Big Ten) and can kiss their hopes of winning the Big Ten title and making the College Football Playoff goodbye. There's no need to panic and ask for a coaching change, but this stat is alarming and hasn't been addressed in years.

Since 2004, Iowa is 61-60 In Games Decided By Single Digits

Since 2004, Iowa is 61-60 (.504) in games that were decided by single digits. pic.twitter.com/BXP0ABpvvI
— CFB Home (@CFBHome) November 9, 2025

To have a 50.4% winning percentage in games decided by single digits simply isn't good enough. This doesn't all fall on Ferentz's shoulders, though it causes room for concern.

Ferentz, who's been the head coach since 1999, has lived through all 121 of these games. He's lost 60 of them, but still hasn't made the needed adjustments to get that winning percentage up.

Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski (11) shakes hands Nov. 8, 2025 after Big Ten Football game against the Oregon Ducks — Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski (11) shakes hands Nov. 8, 2025 after a Big Ten Football game against the Oregon Ducks at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This year, Iowa has only one win by single digits. That was its 25-24 win over Penn State, one that shouldn't have been nearly as close as it was. The Nittany Lions did just take Indiana to the limit, but that doesn't excuse the Hawkeyes' poor home performance against them.

Regardless, Iowa is 1-3 in one-score games this season. Other than its 38-28 win over Rutgers, it has won big. Looking at the rest of their schedule, it seems likely the Hawkeyes will lose to USC by one score, then run through both Michigan State and Nebraska. If there's one thing for certain about Iowa, it's predictability.

These Losses Haunt the Hawkeyes

NO. 9 OREGON WINS ON A FIELD GOAL IN A THRILLER VS. NO. 20 IOWA 🔥 pic.twitter.com/oBWl0M90BP
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 9, 2025

For the first time in forever, Iowa has a competent offense, but has lost to teams that seem to be slightly better. The Hawkeyes have been in a position to win all three of the games they lost this season, but something went wrong, and those games didn't go their way.

Last year, Iowa lost three games by single digits. It lost on a last-second field goal to Iowa State, and then fell to UCLA and No. 19 Missouri by three points. Once again, the Hawkeyes only had one win last year that was by single digits.

Clearly, the Hawkeyes' format remains the same. When they lose, they lose close. But when they win, they win big. That's been the standard under Ferentz, and it's going to continue for years to come.

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