Iowa vs. Vanderbilt ReliaQuest Bowl Predictions

Finally, New Years Eve is here. The Iowa Hawkeyes have one final chance to take the field, led by fifth-year senior quarterback Mark Gronowski.

Head coach Kirk Ferentz already confirmed he'll be back for the 2026 season, so there's no reason to believe this will be his final game with the program.

Vanderbilt stands in Iowa's way of their first Top 25 victory of the year. Currently 0-4, the Hawkeyes would sure love to end the year on a high note.

Having already faced the Heisman winner earlier this year, the Commodores are set to roll out with finalist QB Diego Pavia. He brings a new challenge to Iowa's defense, one they should be more than prepared for.

Jordon Lawrenz - Vanderbilt 27, Iowa 23

Nov 8, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski (11) looks to hand the ball off to running back Kamari Moulton (28) against the Oregon Ducks during the first quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

I dropped my first prediction for this game on December 8. In that one, I gave the Commodores a slight edge, 30-21. There haven't been many opt-outs which bodes well for the fans, but Vanderbilt losing their All-American tight end is certainly something to take note of.

It's not like Pavia won't be able to move the ball without him, but if cornerback TJ Hall is indeed back at full strength, that's a huge get for Iowa. There's no world where Iowa gets blown out in Florida again like they did to Tennessee a few years ago.

This should be a close game, all depending on how Gronowski is able to throw the ball. It's crazy to think Wisconsin has a better defense than Vanderbilt and Hawkeyes fans haven't forgotten what their team did at Camp Randall. Knowing that, it's safe to assume Iowa shouldn't have a problem moving the ball down the field, but we all know what happens when you assume.

Lane Mills - Iowa 23, Vanderbilt 20

Iowa WR Kaden Wetje — Oct 25, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes wide receiver Kaden Wetjen (21) runs with the ball after a catch against Minnesota Golden Gophers defensive back Kerry Brown (14) during the first quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

If for no other reason than it seeming unfair that this Iowa team would go down this way, I believe the Hawkeyes pull of a (relative) upset in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

Vanderbilt is high-powered and, with quarterback Diego Pavia in the limelight, fiery; the exact opposite sort of team that Iowa and head coach Kirk Ferentz try to be. Something has to give, and I like the more seasoned, slow-down approach by the black and gold to take the edge. I look for Iowa’s defense specifically to have a big game. If that unit can force Pavia to make mistakes and flip the field, the Hawkeyes’ fair offense should be able to do just enough to tip this thing in their direction.

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