Odds & Trends: Iowa-Purdue
IOWA CITY, Iowa - The weather for Saturday's Iowa-Purdue Football game in West Lafayette, Ind. could make it even more interesting than the story angles apart from the forecast already make it. It's calling for rain and wind.
The report caused oddsmakers to drop the over-under number with bettors taking the over. Presumably, they're see the conditions creating difficulties for the offenses.
Poor elements could affect the game that way. They also might produce defensive scores and turnovers with short fields to score. And maybe the outlook improves before game time.
It's all to say keep an eye on the weather but look beyond it when betting this contest. Let's take a look at the matchup from a gambling perspective in our weekly Odds & Trends piece:
Point Spreads: Iowa opened up as a 4.5-point underdog in the Vegas Insider consensus on Sunday. The number had fallen to the Hawkeyes +3.5 as of Friday morning. Every book in the consensus showed it at Purdue -3.5.
Money Lines: The VI consensus opened with the Hawkeyes at +158, and it dropped to +146 as of Friday morning. Purdue opened at -192, a number that fell to -178 on Friday.
Over/Under: Also referred to as "the total", this number represents the amount of combined points scored by the two teams.
The VI consensus puts it at 38.5 Friday morning, down from a 43.5 open. Every book in the consensus put it at 38.5 on Friday morning with the exceptions of BetMGM, which had it at 39.0.
Public Percentages Wagered: Books track the percentages of bets placed on each team in a given game.
As of Friday morning, 51 percent of the bets placed on the contest went with Purdue according to the Action Network.
These percentages can, and often do shift as the game draws closer. The "sharps" (professional gamblers) frequently come in late with their bets.
Purdue Trends
-Purdue is 4-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 5 games following a straight up loss.
-Boilermakers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
-Purdue is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games following a ATS loss.
-Boilermakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
-Over is 7-1 in Purdue's last 8 home games.
-Under is 6-1 in Boilermakers' last 7 games following a straight up loss.
-Over is 5-1 in Purdue's last 6 conference games.
Iowa Trends
-Iowa is 3-1-1 ATS in its last 5 road games.
-Hawkeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
-Iowa is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a ATS win.
-Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
-Iowa is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
-Over is 7-2 in Hawkeyes' last 9 conference games.
-Under is 5-2 in Iowa's last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Matchup Trends
-Road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
-Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
-Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Howe's Best Bet: Iowa +3.5
I've performed pretty poorly in this space during recent weeks, so take this recommendation with a grain of salt. I think the Hawkeyes have a decent chance at winning this game outright. If you're giving me a field goal and the hook, I'll gladly take it. Wait to see what the weather's like close to game time before betting the total.