IOWA CITY, Iowa - One of the stronger trends with Iowa and Wisconsin football this season has been betting the under. It will be challenged Saturday when the Big Ten rivals meet in Madison.
The under has hit in six of the Badgers' last eight conference games. It's come home in six of the Hawkeyes' last eight games overall.
Line-makers set it at 36.5 on Sunday. It hadn't budged as of Thursday morning.
Combined, these two defenses yield 33.0 points per game. That certainly makes this unusually low total plausible.
Here's a closer look at this year's matchup from a gambling perspective:
Point Spreads: The game opened with Iowa +3.0 at Vegas Insider (VI). The VI consensus showed the number at the Hawkeyes +3.5 as of Thursday morning. All of the outlets in the consensus had it at Wisconsin -3.
If you're shopping locally, Elite Sportsbook in Riverside, Iowa, and the Hard Rock Sportsbook in Sioux City each had it at Iowa +3.5.
Money Lines: The VI consensus opened with Iowa +135 and Wisconsin -155. Iowa's number moved to +145 as of Thursday morning with Wisconsin at -165. Circa, Draft Kings, Points Bet and Super Book were the high on the Hawkeyes at +145 with Bet MGM the lowest on the Hawkeyes at +135. Caesars is the low on Wisconsin (-160) and Fan Duel the high (-172).
Locally, Elite showed Iowa at +150 and Wisconsin at -170. Hard Rock had the Hawkeyes at +145 and the Badgers at -170.
Over/Under: Also referred to as "the total", this number represents the amount of combined points scored by the two teams. As of Thursday afternoon, VI consensus puts it at 36.5, up from the 36.5 open. Caesars and Points Bet were the high at 37.0. Everyone else in the consensus was at 36.5.
Locally, Elite and Hard Rock each showed it at 36.5.
Public Percentages Wagered: Books track the percentages of bets placed on each team in a given game.
As of Thursday morning, 80 percent of the wagers were made on the Hawkeyes, according to ActionNetwork.com, which showed the point spread as Wisconsin -3.5.
These percentages often shift as the game draws closer. The "sharps" (professional gamblers) frequently come in late with their bets.
-Badgers are 3-8 Against The Spread in their last 11 games overall.
-Wisconsin is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.
-Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
-Wisconsin is 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
-Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
-Under is 6-2 in Wisconsin's last 8 conference games.
-Under is 8-3 in Badgers last 11 games overall.
-Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
-Iowa is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS loss.
-Hawkeyes are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
-Iowa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games.
-Hawkeyes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.
-Under is 5-1 in Iowa's last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
-Under is 6-2 in Hawkeyes last 8 games overall.
-Road team is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
-Hawkeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Wisconsin.