Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Nevada Football

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Iowa is more than a three-touchdown favorite this week despite only finding the end zone once through two games this season. That speaks to the level of competition it will be facing Saturday.

Nevada comes to Kinnick Stadium at 2-1 after falling, 55-41, to Incarnate Word last week at home. If the Hawkeyes' struggling offense can't get going in this contest, it could be a bad omen for the rest of 2022.

The Wolf Pack opened the year with a win at New Mexico State and then topped Texas State at home. Incarnate Word rolled up 616 yards of offense and averaged 8.9 yards per play.

On paper, it's a great opportunity for Iowa, last in the country in offense. While the critics are loud outside of the football building, the bond inside appears strong.

Some offensive players have apologized to defensive guys for their shortcomings and took responsibility for the Hawkeyes losing, 10-7, against rival Iowa State last Saturday. Team captain Riley Moss handled it accordingly.

"I told them, "it's not your fault,"" he said. "It's a team game. It could come down us. We allowed a touchdown. If they didn't score a touchdown, we would have won the game.

"When you starting getting into it's this person's fault, that person's fault, the team divides and we are a lot worse team because of that. That's not what we're trying to do."

Iowa will face a Nevada team transitioning with a new coaching staff. It's also replacing a lot of lost talent from last year.

Longtime assistant coach Ken Wilson took as the Wolf Pack head coach this past offseason when Iowa graduate Jay Norvell left to take the same position at Colorado State. Wilson spent the previous three years at Oregon after six seasons with Washington State.

Through its first two games, the Wolf Pack employed a two-quarterback system. That changed last week, when Nate Cox took all of the snaps behind center. He's completed 34 of 61 passes for 373 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.

Senior running back Tao Taua leads Nevada with 246 rushing yards (4.0 per carry) and three scores. His classmate, Devonte Lee, has 140 yards (4.5) and three ground touchdowns. Cox has 79 yards and has found the end zone twice rushing.

Jamaal Bell paces the Wolf Pack in receiving with 14 catches for 97 yards. Six other players on the team have at least four receptions.

Nevada prefers to run the ball, having rushed 138 times to 86 passes.

On defense, nickel back Tyson Williams leads the Wolf Pack with 22.0 tackles (15.0 solo), and has added two tackles for loss, a sack, an interception and a forced fumble. Defensive tackle Dom Peterson has 3.0 sacks, a quarterback hurry, two fumble recoveries and a forced fumble.

Nevada (2-1) has an 11-2 turnover margin this season, which ranks third nationally. That includes seven interceptions, tied for most in the land.

For the Hawkeyes, Saturday needs to be their get-well game with Big Ten play looming. They should be able to run the ball and off of that set up play action. Then, they need to convert throws, especially the easy ones.

Iowa (1-1) ranks last in the nation in total offense (158.0 yards per game, 2.8 yards per play), sitting 74.5 yards per game behind the next worst team (Colorado State). It's 7.0 points per game also are the fewest in the country among FBS programs.

Coach Kirk Ferentz announced Tuesday that he was sticking with starting quarterback Spencer Petras, who is 23 of 51 for 201 yards and two interceptions with no touchdowns this season. While there's swell from fans to make a change behind center, the senior from California isn't doubting himself or his teammates.

"I'm very confident," he said Tuesday. "I have a lot of trust in this process. That's the beauty of the game of football. It's about improvement, and it's about each week being a little bit better at everything.

"And I have a lot of confidence in this team, in myself and this offense."

The Hawkeyes could get a boost from the return of injured players on offense. Starting running back Gavin Williams might take on a bigger role after missing Week 1 and being limited last week. No. 1 receivers Nico Ragaini and Keagan Johnson also have a chance to see their first action of the season.

A dominant defense and special teams should provide the Iowa offense with opportunities. The 6.5 points and 216.5 yards allowed per game both rank sixth nationally. It's yielding 15.5 yards per kick return (25th in the country) and 4.0 yards on punt returns with two blocks.

This contest also might give the Hawkeyes a chance to sort through the competition at place kicker. Aaron Blom is 1 of 3 on field goal attempts, missing a potential game-tying try in the rain late in Saturday's loss. Drew Stevens is kicking off but could get a look on field goals.

TV ANNOUNCERS: Mark Followill, Matt Millen, and Meghan McKeown on BTN.

SERIES: Saturday’s game is the first meeting between Nevada and Iowa. It is the second straight year the Hawkeyes have faced an opponent from the Mountain West Conference. Iowa defeated Colorado State, 24-14, last season in Kinnick Stadium.

Iowa is 10-1-1 all-time against current member of the MWC. The only loss came against Hawaii in Honolulu in 1988 (Iowa tied Air Force, 13-13, in 1958).

BETTING LINES: Iowa opened as a 20.5-point favorite at Vegas Insider Sunday. It moved to the Hawkeyes -23.0 Monday. The total opened at 42.0 but was down to 40.0 at some places by Monday morning with it as low as 39.5 in some places.

TRENDS

-Nevada is 5-0 Against The Spread in its last 5 road games.

-Over is 5-1 in Wolf Pack last 6 games overall.

-Iowa is 0-3-1 ATS in its last 4 games overall.

-Under is 6-0 in Hawkeyes last 6 non-conference games.

NEVADA PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Nate Cox, QB – At 6-9, the Louisiana product casts are large shadow. He started his first game of the season last week, throwing for 302 yards and two scores to go along with a rushing touchdown.

-Toa Taua, Devonte Lee, RBs – The pair has combined to rush for 386 yards on 91 carries (4.2 ypc) this season, with seven touchdowns (four for Lee, three for Taua). Taua has posted two 100-yard games early on this season, most recently going for 101 yards and a score against Incarnate Word.

-Dom Peterson, DL – The senior entered the 2022 season as one of the top defensive linemen in the Mountain West. Through the first three games of 2022, he is living up to that standard, already racking up 3.0 sacks as well as a pair of fumble recoveries. He currently sits third in both tackles-for-loss and sacks on Nevada’s career lists.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Nevada: Take care of the ball and stop the run.

Iowa: Run the ball well.

GAME NOTES

-The Nevada defense’s 11 takeaways have played a critical role in the Pack putting points on the board. Nine of those 11 takeaways have directly resulted in points. One could even say the Pack is *really* 9-for-10 on converting takeaways, as Tyson Williams’ interception at New Mexico State came with 32 seconds left, and the Pack then kneeled out the clock.

-Saturday’s contest at Iowa is Nevada’s first game against a B1G opponent since 2019’s dramatic, season-opening 34-31 home victory over Purdue (Aug. 31, 2019). In that game, Nevada scored the final 17 points, including 10 over the final 52 seconds, capped by Brandon Talton’s 56-yard field goal as time expired. The Pack is 1-2 all-time against the B1G, with losses at Wisconsin (1993) and Purdue (2016) along with the 2019 victory over the Boilermakers.

-Nevada kicker Brandon Talton was named to the 2022 Lou Groza Award preseason watch list in July. So far this season, Talton is 6-for-6 on field-goal attempts and 12-for-12 on PATs. The Vacaville, Calif., native is also chasing some career records in 2022, currently ranking third in field goals made with 64, and third in kick scoring with 311 points.

-Nevada’s roster (through Sept. 12) features 29 first-year transfers. A number of the new transfers have seen significant playing time already this season, and the breakdown of their previous programs is as follows: 19 from FBS schools (13 Power Five, 6 Group of Five), 1 FCS, 1 Division II, and 8 junior college.

-Nevada defensive back Christian Swint was named a nominee for two preseason college football awards which focus on a student-athletes community service. He was named a 2022 Allstate AFCA Good Works Team nominee, as well as to the Wuerffel Trophy preseason watch list, in July

-Iowa’s scoring defense has given up just one touchdown and 6.5 points in the first two games of the season. It is the first time since 2018 that the defense has given up one touchdown in a two-game stretch. The Hawkeyes rank sixth nationally in scoring defense. Iowa has ranked in the top 13 nationally in scoring defense in the FBS in each of the last four seasons.

-Three Hawkeye defenders – LB Jack Campbell, LB Seth Benson and CASH/DB Cooper DeJean – have posted double digit tackle games this season. DeJean had a game-high 11 tackles and his first career interception against Iowa State.

-The Hawkeyes are playing clean football, averaging just three penalties for 20 yards over the first two games. Iowa’s six penalties and 3.00 penalties per game are second in the NCAA. The team’s penalty yards (40) and penalty yards per game (20.0) are both tops in the nation.

-Mr. 100… senior TE Sam LaPorta caught his 100th career pass against Iowa State on Sept. 10. LaPorta had a career-high eight receptions for 55 yards against the Cyclones. LaPorta has a team-high 10 catches for 64 yards this season.

-Senior LB Jack Campbell is two tackles shy of reaching the 200-career tackle mark. Campbell is 79th in school history with his 198 career tackles. The Cedar Falls, Iowa, native has 21 tackles in two games, averaging 10.5 per contest, which is tops in the Big Ten.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Nevada – Jennifer Harman

Iowa - Denis Johnson

HOWE I SEE IT: I'm not sure Iowa can lessen the concerns of its fan base in this game, but it could certainly increase them if it's close. The Hawkeye badly need a blowout to boost moral, inside and outside of the facility.

Nevada has a first-year head coach, lost a lot from last year's team and fell to Incarnate Word, which scored 55 points on the road. Iowa has to muster something offensively this week or it's going to be a rough look.

The Hawkeyes should be able to run the ball. In doing so, there will be open receivers in play action.

I don't want to think about what it's going to be like around here if Iowa scores under 20 points this week.

PREDICTION: IOWA 26, Nevada 3