Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Penn State

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Iowa versus Penn State is a rivalry, kinda, sorta. It's not Minnesota, Wisconsin or Nebraska. It's probably falls into the next group with Illinois, Northwestern and Michigan State.

The Hawkeye-Nittany Lion series is filled with memorable moments. PSU holds a 17-14 advantage in it.

From Iowa's vantage point, it's Adrian Clayborn's block and Daniel Murray's kick that stand out as good memories. There's Saquan Barkley as one to forget.

Saturday's meeting in State College kicks off at night for a whiteout crowd at Beaver Stadium. Iowa is 4-4 in its last eight trips to University Park.

The 24th-ranked Hawkeyes (3-0) are two touchdown underdogs against No. 7 Penn State (3-0). On paper, it's their toughest challenge on the 2023 schedule.

According to this formula, Iowa's strength of schedule ranks 67th among 133 FBS programs so far. The Nittany Lions check in at No. 55. They will be each other's toughest opponent so far in '23.

True sophomore quarterback Drew Allar guides the PSU offensive attack. He's completing 67.0 percent of his passes for 737 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. He also has 52 yards and a score rushing.

Allar enjoys being surrounded by talented players . Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton along with backup QB Beau Pribula have a combined 473 yards and nine TDs on the ground. KeAndre Lambert-Smith (13 catches, 220 yards, 2 TDs), Tyler Warren (10-81-2) and Harrison Wallace III (10-98-0) lead a deep corps of pass-catchers.

Potential starter Landon Tengwall didn't make it back from a '22 injury, which thinned out the Lion O-Line. The group has responded, however. It's helped having one of the country's top tackles in Olu Fashanu.

Penn State is physical and athletic on defense. It ranks 33rd nationally in rushing defense (3.1 yards per carry) and 11th in passing efficiency defense. By comparison, Iowa's defense ranks 40th against the run (3.5 YPC) and 17th against the pass.

Linebacker Abdul Carter wears No. 11 well for the Lions. He has six solo tackles with a sack, interception and two quarterback-hurries. Fellow backer Curtis Jacobs (9 solo tackles, sack, 3 QB-hurries) also enjoys disrupting opposing offenses.

If Penn State plays well, the Hawkeyes will need their A game, no question. That's usually the case when they face blue blood programs.

The Hawkeyes don't get caught up in labels. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is 10-8 against the Nittany Lions.

There's a path to victory for the Hawkeyes. Their new starting quarterback, Cade McNamara, is 1-0 at Beaver Stadium, leading Michigan to a 21-17 victory there in '21.

Iowa's defense is capable of rattling Allar, especially if the inexperienced signal caller becomes impatient. If the visitors can slow down the PSU running game, the Doughboyz could be cooking.

There are going to be "ifs" for Iowa in these matchups most days. There is no path to victory with a poor performance. Control what it can control.

By the way, the Nittany Lions are 8-6 during Whiteout games. That includes a 21-10 Iowa win in which Clayborn blocked a punt, scooped up the ball and scored on a rainy, late-September night in '19.

TV ANNOUNCERS: Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson and Jenny Dell on CBS (6:30 CT).

SERIES: The teams are meeting for the 32nd time. The Hawkeyes have won the last two matchups, including a 23-20 victory over the fourth-ranked Nittany Lions in '21.

Iowa is 8-7 all-time in State College, including a 41-21 victory in the last meeting there in '20. It was the Hawkeyes’ largest margin of victory in the series. Prior to the win, Penn State had won six consecutive games against the Hawkeyes. Four of the last five games in the series have been decided by six points or less.

BETTING LINES: Iowa was a 14.5-point underdog at Bet Rivers on Thursday evening. The total sat at 40.5. The Hawkeyes were +500 and Penn State -770 to win.

TRENDS

-Iowa is 7-2 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 9 games.

-The total has gone Over in five of Iowa's last six games against an opponent from the B1G East.

-Penn State is 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 games.

-The total has gone Over in five of Penn State's last seven games against Iowa.

PENN STATE PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Drew Allar, QB - The highly-touted quarterback ranks fourth in the Big Ten in passing yards (737), passing yards per game (245.7) and total offense per game (263.0), and fifth in completion percentage (67.0) and passing touchdowns (4).

-Kalen King, CB - King began the season on watch lists for the Bednarik Award, Bronko Nagurski Trophy, Butkus Award, Lott IMPACT Trophy and Jim Thorpe Award. In his career, King has 61 tackles, four tackles for loss, three interceptions, 24 pass breakups, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery..

-Abdul Carter, LB - Carter paced all Big Ten freshmen in '22 in tackles for loss (10.5) and sacks (6.5). Among FBS freshmen, he was tied third in sacks and ranked third in tackles for loss. He's picked up where he left off last season. .

KEYS TO VICTORY

Penn State: The Nittany Lions want to start fast and lather up the crowd of more 100 thousand people. They'd like to slow Iowa's run game, forcing it to pass.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes want to avoid falling in an early hole in a hostile environment. Winning the turnover battle and gaining an edge on special teams could be key.

GAME NOTES

-Iowa will be playing on a grass playing surface for the second time this season Saturday at Beaver Stadium. The Hawkeyes have won their last six games on grass, including a 20-13 win at Iowa State in Week 2.

-Iowa will be making its first television appearance on CBS in 26 years. The Hawkeyes’ last appearance on the network came in the 1997 Sun Bowl vs. Arizona State – a 17-7 loss (Iowa’s last regular season game on CBS came in 1986 against Michigan). Saturday is Iowa’s 17th game on CBS; the program is 11-4-1 all-time on the network.

-Iowa rushed for 254 yards during a 41-10 victory against Western Michigan last Saturday - the most for the program since 2019 against Middle Tennessee State (351 yards).

-The Hawkeyes put up a season-high 41 points -- the highest point total in a 25-game stretch. Iowa scored 51 points in the road win at Maryland in '21. Iowa finished with 387 yards of total offense, topping the 300-yard mark for the first time in its last seven games.

-Iowa’s defense has allowed one touchdown to each of its first three opponents. The unit, which ranks 18th in scoring defense at 12.3 points per game, has allowed one touchdown or less in 12 of its last 16 games, dating back to the start of the 2022 season.

-Penn State co-offensive coordinator/tight ends coach Ty Howle coached Iowa graduate assistant Kevin Johnson at Western Illinois. Howle was the assistant head coach/cooffensive coordinator/offensive line coach while Johnson was a quarterback for the Leathernecks during the 2019 season.

-Penn State senior P Riley Thompson and Iowa P Tory Taylor both played at Haileybury College in Australia.

-Penn State will play its 27th game on CBS on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are 16-10 all-time on CBS, including last season's 41-12 win at Auburn. CBS returns to broadcast from Beaver Stadium for the first time since November 24, 1990, a 22-17 Penn State win over Pitt.

-The Nittany Lions have recorded three or more takeaways in seven games over the last two seasons, tied for the most among FBS teams.

-Over the last two seasons, Penn State is 9-0 when forcing multiple takeaways in a game.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Penn State - Patrick Fabian

Iowa - Tappy Phillips

HOWE I SEE IT: I'd like to say I see Iowa winning this game but haven't been able to get there. I'm sure I didn't see the upset coming in '09, either.

The best part of Iowa upsetting the conference's elite is that we don't see it coming. The public is heavily on the Lions.

I don't think the environment rattles the Hawkeyes. I'm just not sure their offense can contribute what they need to win.

PREDICTION: Penn State 24, IOWA 13